On one front, it remains a dominant player in Lebanon's sectarian political landscape; on another, it positions itself as a "military resistance" against Israel. However, Hezbollah’s standing on both fronts appears tenuous, as it faces mounting internal and external pressures that threaten its role within Lebanon and its strength as a primary force against Israel, all while it continues to serve Iran's broader geopolitical objectives. 

Israel’s recent success in eliminating key Hezbollah leaders, including the long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah, has underscored the depth of Israeli military and intelligence penetration into the organization. This breakthrough has not only inflicted profound political and military damage on Hezbollah but has also disrupted Iran’s regional strategy. For years, Hezbollah has been Iran’s most potent tool for furthering its interests across the Middle East, in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Israel's success represents the most severe blow to Hezbollah in its history, radically altering the strategic balance of the so-called "axis of resistance."

The assassination of Nasrallah and other senior leaders has plunged Iran’s strategy, which aimed to encircle Israel with a network of proxy militias, into turmoil. Hezbollah was Iran’s ace, and the loss of Nasrallah is felt personally among Iran’s political elite, for he was one of the few figures in the region who considered Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei his spiritual guide. Hezbollah had embraced Iran’s concept of “wilayat al-faqih,” a system of governance rooted in theocratic rule, wherein Iran’s supreme leader holds absolute authority and commands unconditional loyalty.

Following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on 31 July, Israel escalated its operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. It targeted Hezbollah's radio communication systems on 17-18 September, followed by a series of intense strikes against Hezbollah positions in southern Beirut, south Lebanon, and the Beqaa Valley. The bombardment continued after Nasrallah's assassination on 27 September, with the civilian death toll in Lebanon surpassing one thousand by the end of September. This was followed by a limited ground incursion, raising fears amid the region that the violence could spiral into a broader conflict.

It is no exaggeration to say that Nasrallah was the mastermind and driving force of Hezbollah. Without him, it is difficult to envision how Hezbollah will think, act, and wield influence as it has in the past decades. The impact of Nasrallah’s assassination far exceeds that of Israel’s 1992 killing of Abbas Musawi. For years, Nasrallah was one of the few who could truly read Israel — its government, military, society, vulnerabilities, and limitations —and he sought to exploit these weaknesses to survive and even thrive. Yet he failed to understand that Israel today is a vastly different entity, led by a government more extreme and aggressive than any in the country’s history. Nor did he realize that no leader in Israel, regardless of political stance, would tolerate the depopulation of nearly all of northern Israel due to Hezbollah’s missile strikes. 

Nasrallah’s decision to support Hamas in Gaza by opening a front against Israel proved to be a massive gamble with catastrophic consequences. Not only did he fail to aid Hamas meaningfully, but his move also brought ruin to Hezbollah. To say that Nasrallah miscalculated would be a severe understatement; his error was nothing short of fatal. As Israel continues to target potential successors to Nasrallah, Hezbollah now confronts unprecedented challenges, clouding its future.

While some speculate that Hezbollah faces a bleak outlook, as its political and military stature no longer holds the weight it once did, it would be premature to declare its end. Hezbollah still possesses tens of thousands of fighters, an enormous stockpile of missiles, conventional military assets, and drones, making it improbable that Israel could eradicate it.

Beyond Israel's ongoing military operations against Hezbollah and the potential for a regional conflict, Hezbollah now faces two additional challenges. First, several international and regional powers, as well as factions within Lebanon, are pressing for the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which mandates the disarmament of all Lebanese militias, including Hezbollah, and calls for the Lebanese government to reestablish full sovereignty over its territory. The UN secretary-general has warned of the dangers posed by Hezbollah’s substantial military capacity, stressing the need for it to transform from a militant group into a purely civilian political party.

The second challenge lies in the widespread rejection by international and regional forces of the principle that non-state armed groups should operate independently within a national state, executing foreign agendas based on sectarian lines. Such groups are seen as capable of engaging in conflicts that result in severe economic and human losses, threatening regional and global stability. The proxy warfare model pioneered by Iran in the region appears increasingly unsustainable, regardless of its motivations or objectives.

The coming period will be decisive for Hezbollah’s future. It bears the responsibility to navigate shifting international and regional power dynamics, including within Lebanon, where potential sectarian tensions could spiral out of control and ignite a new civil war. Political opponents of Hezbollah have seized the opportunity to question the party's strategy, pointing out the severe political and economic toll it has inflicted on Lebanon due to its alignment with Iranian interests. This scrutiny intensified following Hezbollah’s rigid stance on Lebanon’s presidential election, where its insistence on its preferred candidate resulted in a nearly two-year political deadlock and presidential vacuum. 

As regional escalation continues, various parties are working to prevent the situation from erupting into a full-scale regional war that could devastate the region. It is not an exaggeration to conclude that Hezbollah faces an uncertain future, especially as Iran has yet to demonstrate a genuine benefit to the Palestinian cause or its success in protecting Palestinians from Israeli atrocities.

*The writer is a senator and former assistant to the foreign minister.