Power Politics is one of the oldest approaches to understanding international relations. Power – like energy, speed, time, and similar measures of human capacity – has its limits. Perhaps the main problem with power is that, when it is on the ascendent, it seems to have absolute qualities – until a nightmare jolts us awake.
But power is not the same thing as force, which implies the ability to destroy. In its fullest sense, power is the ability to influence others, to get them to change their position or take an action they did not initially plan on. This definition is crucial when it comes to measuring the balance of power and the strategic decisions related to it. In this context, some elements of power are difficult to measure, such as the acumen and skill of the political leaders and generals leading a conflict on one side or the other, or their ability to grasp and accurately factor in the capacities – as well as the latest technological advances – of their adversaries.
The problem of assessing power balances has played out frequently in current events in the Middle East, especially since the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation, the long aftermath of which has not spared US President Donald Trump. Going back over all that has happened in such a small space of time, as Israel and Iran inched towards direct confrontation, eventually arriving at the dreadful clash we are witnessing today, one realises such a major explosion could only have been averted had one or more of the players recognised the limits of their power and their consequent ability to change an undesirable reality.
Trump remains at the height of his arrogance. In his first hundred days, he has recorded the highest use of political muscle both domestically and abroad. He kicked off his second term with an unprecedented spate of executive orders. His defiance of the judiciary has brought him to the brink of a constitutional crisis. His demonisation of foreigners has led to a brutal war on refugees. In foreign policy, his promises to bring peace to Ukraine and Gaza have proven false, while his vow to turn the balance of international trade back in the US’ favour has backfired.
He dreamed that hard power with a pinch of diplomacy and a lot of idle threats would work wonders. The actual results have turned even those who elected him against him, as the richest country with the mightiest army in the world became entangled with a tiny militia in one of the poorest countries on earth, Yemen, while hopes for peace in Ukraine vanished. Now the US finds itself in the middle of a major regional war between Israel and Iran. After his first 100 days, Trump began to realise that his great plans were not yielding the outcomes he had envisioned. The net result is that the US has become embroiled in another war it cannot win – and there seem to be no end of those.
Meanwhile, the political situation domestically requires reserves of experience, wisdom, and careful handling, which are all lacking. In short, it is about time for the US to come to terms with the limits of its power and also to acknowledge that the world has changed. Other, wiser approaches must be brought to bear on problems at home and abroad. The ability of all regional and international actors to recognise the limits of power remains the crux of the issue, whether with regard to the conflict in Europe or the more intractable ones in our region. It appears that the forces of resistance, whether in Ukraine or the Middle East, are prepared for greater sacrifices in land or lives than either Russia or the US had banked on.
With regard to the latter, two months of relentless bombing failed to stop the Houthis from firing missiles at Israel or targeting Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea. As for Ukraine, its ability to build a drone force in 18 months and strike 40 Russian bombers may have achieved the element of surprise; it also ensured that the war would continue. Another problem related to power equations is that “victory” and “defeat” are no longer clearly definable for any party. These terms today cannot be measured by the number of military or civilian casualties, by towns and cities seized, or even by food supplies withheld. Nor is mere survival – as in the continued rule of President Zelensky over a year after his term expired or Hamas and its allies’ continued capacity to fire rockets at Israel – a sufficient gauge, even if the rockets hit their targets.
Trump’s solution has been to gradually backpedal on the domestic and foreign policy goals he had set. At the same time, he tried to escape forward by pushing Israel to threaten a war against Iran. Israel did as expected, launching the so-called “Operation Rising Lion” while Washington declared it had nothing to do with it, with complete innocence, while Tehran had been exploring the possibility of negotiations with Washington.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 19 June, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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