The "Black Swan" is a concept coined by Lebanese-American thinker Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It refers to rare and massive unforeseen events that cause profound, transformative shifts in political and social systems.
The "Swan Song," by contrast, is a well-known metaphor that describes a final moment of brilliance before collapse. It often connotes a final, desperate, and emotional act of an individual, an institution, an empire, or any entity as it senses the approach of its end.
These metaphorical concepts offer a penetrating insight into Israel's behaviour since 7 October 2023. Although Israel seeks to impose a new "peace through deterrence" through the use of brute force and through redrawing the region's map, it has starkly undermined its legitimacy as a state with a political and moral narrative, internally and globally, and its ability to deter in the process.
From a strictly military and strategic standpoint, some realist observers argue that Israel has achieved an unambiguous success in imposing the logic of power. It has systematically destroyed Gaza's infrastructure, reasserted its military presence within the Strip, and imposed its will through war against the resistance via killing, assassinations, intimidation, and starvation of tens of thousands of unarmed civilians. It also struck multiple fronts of the "Resistance Axis", landing painful and humiliating blows at its heart in Iran and its main flank, Hezbollah. Damascus, under Assad and now under the transitional leadership of al-Sharaa, has also been targeted. Simultaneously, Israel deepened its military and intelligence cooperation with the United States and major Western powers.
Diplomatically, Israel succeeded in neutralising the UN Security Council under the official cover of the US. In contrast, the Arab official response was either muted or paralysed, and the international discourse was hesitant. Domestically, Israel accelerated its policies in the West Bank, swiftly Judaising the Ibrahimi Mosque and intensifying settlement expansion in an attempt to redraw the post-war geographic and political map.
All of these moves were guided by a conviction within Israel that deterrence could not be restored after 7 October without redefining and reshaping the regional landscape through force. In doing this, Israel aims to impose a "peace of deterrence" on the Middle East solely on Israeli terms, without negotiation with any regional player.
But what some may interpret as a success rooted in overwhelming violence and superiority conceals internal fractures and structural vulnerabilities. Israel's extreme violence against Gaza, in the complete absence of a balance of power, has not subdued the Strip nor broken its will to resist, even after nearly two years. Instead, it has created a historic opportunity for a remarkable Black Swan: the resurrection of the Palestinian cause after years of neglect. It has reintroduced the Palestinian cause to global consciousness, especially among the youth in the West, portraying it as a struggle against colonisation and a moral and humanistic cause that transcends the boundaries of geography, nationality, and religion.
In Syria, another major Black Swan emerged: the fall of the Assad regime and the rise of a transitional authority led by Ahmed al-Sharaa under a revolutionary and Islamic (or formerly terrorist, depending on perspective) banner. This came as a strategic shock to Israel, even if some reports suggest it reluctantly tolerated the change under American pressure. Israel lost what had become an ideal neighbour – stable, passive, and rhetorically resistant but practically docile – in favour of an open southern front laden with uncertainty, threats, and few constraints.
From Iran came yet another Black Swan. The new equation revealed by Israel's confrontation with Tehran shows that deterrence is no longer one-sided. Israel endured direct, significant strikes on its territory and its military, scientific, and economic core, revealing a level of security fragility that had never before been publicly acknowledged (despite deliberately concealing many losses). While Israel claims to be reshaping the region, the reality indicates it cannot even control its traditional fronts. Its hegemonic aspirations are being drained strategically on multiple fronts and levels.
But the most dangerous Black Swan did not appear in Gaza, Damascus, or Tehran; it rose at the heart of Washington. Recent American polls show a dramatic shift in public sentiment: only 23 percent of Americans believe Israel's actions are fully justified. In comparison, 43 percent of young Democrats call for an end to all military aid to Israel.
American universities have become protest arenas, waving Palestinian flags and demanding boycotts of companies and institutions linked to the occupation. The Palestinian issue is no longer considered a foreign policy matter; it is now central to the domestic discourse of social justice, alongside the demands for the rights of blacks, refugees, the marginalised, and the oppressed. This shift strikes at the heart of Israel's narrative in the US and across the West. Israel is no longer seen as a democratic state under siege, but rather as an exposed, predatory colonial force that embarrasses its political allies and weakens their credibility before their electorates.
Amid these upheavals, a more dangerous issue resurfaces that reflects informal influence: the ties between Donald Trump, Jeffrey Epstein, and Mossad. Epstein, who died under mysterious circumstances, was reportedly at the centre of a network allegedly used to entrap influential figures by filming their sexual scandals and later blackmailing them.
Trump's presence in this circle was no coincidence. It was built on a network of interlinked interests with Tel Aviv, particularly via his son-in-law, Jared Kushner. Trump's decisions – from recognising Jerusalem to endorsing the Abraham Accords to trying to force the "Deal of the Century," and even pushing for strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities- can partly be understood within the context of this soft pressure network.
The Epstein affair and its suspected links to Mossad are increasingly spiralling out of control in US public opinion, especially within the MAGA circles that support Trump. Influential voices are beginning to question whether Trump's decisions truly served American interests. Questions are being raised about the extent to which Israeli influence permeates US governance.
What is unfolding in the United States today indicates that Israel is no longer untouchable. It is no longer above politics and is becoming a subject of debate and even accountability. A new generation in Washington is unconvinced by Israel's security discourse and refuses to tolerate its excessive repression under the guise of counterterrorism. The erosion of public support, the exposure of undemocratic backchannels, and the widening rift between US institutions and their grassroots are all signs that the traditional strategic alliance between America and Israel is entering a genuine phase of reevaluation.
What is happening today is not an Israeli triumph as much as a declaration of its deep crisis. In my view, we are witnessing Israel's swan song. Netanyahu's Israel and its far-right religious government, fleeing a dead-end future, is trying to impose its dominance over the Middle East, which is impossible. Israel's practices – naked violence, total disregard for opponents, outright contempt for international law, humanitarian law, and global public opinion – produce nothing but widespread destruction and permanent instability. Or, at best, a violent, unsustainable pseudo-stability, whether in occupied Palestine or across the regional order.
Israel will not be able to bear its political, economic, and military losses, alongside the backlash to its narrative and reputation, in the medium or long term. This is true even if it succeeds in temporarily enforcing its dominance by forming short-term alliances of convenience and resorting to a carrot-and-stick approach.
*The writer is a lecturer in global studies.
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