Before the 2025 Shangri-La Security Conference held in Singapore from 31 May to 2 June, US Secretary of War (formerly secretary of defence) Pete Hegseth talked about restoring American deterrence around the world and particularly in the Asia-Pacific region.
He pointed out that under the Trump administration the United States increased its 2025 military budget by 13 per cent compared to the previous fiscal year. It now stands at more than $1 trillion. He also referred to the modernisation of the US military, citing the sixth-generation F-47 fighter, the B-2 stealth bomber, naval drones, destroyers, and hypersonic missiles.
The last four and a half years, a period that spans two US administrations, one Democrat under former president Joe Biden (2021-2025) and one Republican under President Donald Trump (2025-), have witnessed growing competition between the US and China, particularly in the military field. The allies and partners of the US around the world have also been mobilised to contain the emergence of China as a rival to the US and Western dominance of world affairs.
On 30 October last year, former US secretary of state Antony Blinken presented a document entitled “American Diplomacy for a New Era,” saying that the US had achieved a “level of strategic convergence with allies and partners across and between the Atlantic and the Pacific that was unimaginable a few years ago.”
Blinken was referring implicitly to China as the target of such strategic convergence.
Moreover, the New Strategic Concept adopted by NATO at its summit meeting in Madrid in June 2022, which is intended to guide the policies and set the priorities for the Atlantic Alliance over the next decade, stated that the “deepening strategic partnership between China and Russia and their mutually reinforcing attempts to undercut the rules-based international order run counter to our values and interests.”
The document said that “as allies, we will work together to address the systemic challenges posed by China to Euro-Atlantic security.”
The Victory Day Parade held by the Chinese military on the occasion of the 80th anniversary of the defeat of Japan at the hands of Chinese forces in 1945 thus came as no surprise. China used this national anniversary to showcase its modern weapons systems. The parade was truly impressive, and the weapons shown on this occasion bear witness to the fact that China has become a military power to reckon with.
The arsenal included supersonic missiles, anti-aircraft missiles, underwater drones, and new tanks, in addition to the latest generation of fighter planes.
Aside from the latest weapons systems that were on display during the parade for the whole world to see, another image also caught the world’s attention – the presence of Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un standing side by side with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Kim has not met the latter for the last six years.
The scene of the leaders of three of the Asian and Euro-Asian nuclear powers standing together in Beijing to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the defeat of Japan sent out two significant messages. The first is that the three powers have formed a formidable strategic alliance for the first time since the end of the Cold War. The second is that China does not stand alone in the Asia-Pacific region.
It was as if the Chinese were responding in their own way to the concept of an Asian NATO, notwithstanding the fact that the Beijing alliance as symbolised by the meeting of the Chinese, Russian, and North Korean leaders is not a military one unlike the North Atlantic Alliance.
Another important message was that in the event of a military conflict around the future of Taiwan, China would have the political and military backing of Russia and North Korea. In other words, the Chinese leaders have drawn relevant conclusions from Russia going into Ukraine in February 2022 without regional or international support. This fact alone is of major significance as an element in evolving Chinese deterrence.
According to press reports, a Chinese-American summit between Jinping and Trump is being prepared, although the venue and the timing remain to be decided. If the summit takes place, the Chinese are in a much stronger position to negotiate with Trump. However, the latter, known for his unpredictability, could change course, at least for the time being, as far as relations with China are concerned after the impressive Chinese show of military power in the Victory Day Parade.
On 5 September, Trump wrote on social media that “it looks like we have lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest China.” I do not recall Trump using such offensive language about China since his first summit meeting with Jinping in April 2017 at his luxurious Florida retreat at Mar-a-Lago.
Writing on 2 September for the US Brookings Institute, commentator Patricia Kim said that the upcoming Chinese-American Summit will not “reset the US-China relationship, nor will it yield a sweeping grand bargain.” She suggested that it could be used “to improve strategic discipline on [the rivalry between Washington and Beijing], making it more predictable, less susceptible to crisis, locking in economic guardrails, securing Chinese cooperation on Ukraine and North Korea, [and] defending long term US interests, especially in Taiwan.”
After the display of Chinese deterrence in Beijing on 3 September, the Chinese are in a much stronger position today in talking to Trump on a host of issues of great concern, among them Taiwan, China-bashing, and trade and economic questions.
The writer is former assistant foreign minister.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 11 September, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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