“Could you imagine if I lose? My whole life, what am I gonna do? I’m gonna say I lost to the worst candidate in the history of politics. I’m not gonna feel so good. Maybe I’ll have to leave the country, I don’t know.”

This is what Trump said at a recent rally on his campaign trail to win a second term in office.

It is the first time since he launched his first presidential campaign in 2016 that he talked about and considered the possibility of losing the elections.

Until recently, he would always declare he will not lose the elections, unless there is election fraud, especially with mail-in ballots. He also threatened he will not accept loss and his followers will not remain quiet if he loses the elections.

What has happened to Trump, and what is the significance of his recent statements about what he will do if he loses?

Some believe he was joking, but Trump’s words and mannerism contradict this assumption. He did not follow up by saying, this will never happen — as he has done in the past when talking about things he doesn’t want to happen. Psychological analysis of people who cannot take a loss shows they will talk about losing before it happens, to lessen the psychological impact on them when it does happen. Does this mean that Trump is preparing himself for losing the elections? And what are the reasons behind this premonition?

Trump’s greatest hope was that economic conditions amid the Covid-19 outbreak would recover before the elections. Although economic indicators improved in the past two months, this uptick was marginal as high unemployment rates continue. The US is currently bracing for a second wave of Covid-19, which has already begun, while a vaccine against the virus is not at hand.

Accordingly, it is only logical that Trump is pessimistic about the outcome of the elections, especially since his opponent, Joe Biden, is focused on accusing Trump and his administration of exacerbating the crisis which has killed more than 200,000 Americans to date.

Although some still believe Trump has a surprise up his sleeve that he will reveal shortly before election day on 3 November (namely, that a cure for Covid-19 has arrived, and this will carry him through the gates of victory), it is unlikely because voters will need time well beyond election day to verify whatever Trump says in his surprise announcement.

Trump also seems unsure in denying opinion polls that show him trailing some distance behind Biden, unlike in 2016 when he resolutely denied his then opponent Hillary Clinton would win with an overwhelming majority. 

While today’s polls may indicate the popular vote across the US, they can be wrong in predicting the results in each state, especially swing states, which could result in shocking outcomes as seen in the 2016 elections.

Another possible explanation for Trump’s dim outlook is early voting, which tallied at 25 million votes by Sunday. The website US Election Project stated that early voting and mail-in voting before the 2016 elections accounted for no more than six million ballots. Perhaps Trump and his campaign have found out the results of early voting that show he is losing, and therefore Trump is worried even though his campaign staff believe most early voters will support the Democrats. Even if Biden wins these votes, Trump’s supporters could come out in droves on election day and reverse these results.

So, by sounding pessimistic could Trump’s intention be to entice his supporters to go to the polls on election day? And what about Biden’s position and his campaign? Are they more confident of a victory than before?

Trump’s supporters must be worried about his pessimistic outlook and this could cause them to bring out the vote, especially Whites and Anglican Christians who want to block Biden from reaching the White House with his liberal ideas calling for more social freedoms, even ones that contradict their religious and racial beliefs. Biden must be concerned about this due to the deep political, racial and social rift in US society today. Biden probably isn’t a favourite in business and financial circles either, because he promised to redistribute the tax burden, lower taxes on those making less than $400,000 annually, and raise taxes for companies and financial institutions. This would hurt this sector and foretells a cut in domestic investment and higher unemployment rates.

Overall, judging by what happened in the 2016 election, one cannot place much confidence in opinion polls. Neither can one predict whether voters will choose the next president of the United States based on their anger over Trump’s Covid-19 policies, without linking that to confidence that Biden would do a better job, or if they will ignore this factor and see Biden as an unconvincing president due to his old age and health issues. If he becomes president, the seats of power will be battling each other, making taking decisions impossible at a time when the US expects to face serious domestic and foreign challenges, including resuscitating the economy at home and China’s ascension on the global stage.

*A version of this article appears in print in the 22 October, 2020 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly