Only a handful of Republicans openly expressed their disdain for outgoing US President Donald Trump and hoped their party will recover from his tenure in the name of Republicans. However, the majority of Republican members of Congress, according to a recent poll in Newsweek, refused to divulge their true feelings towards Trump: “Nearly 90 per cent of Congressional Republicans still won’t say who won the election”.

This is not necessarily due to these Republicans believing Trump’s claims about election fraud, but for several other reasons regarding the future of their party due to predictions that Trump will continue to battle his Democrat and Republican opponents even after he leaves office. What power does Trump yield that is so feared by some or most Republicans, even after he leaves the White House?

There is a widespread belief that Trump, as an anomaly in the history of US politics, will run again in 2024 and will behave as if the next four years are a long presidential campaign for him. He may win again and would be the second US president in history to win two non-consecutive terms. The first was Grover Cleveland who became president in 1884, lost his bid in 1888, but won a second term in 1892.

Trump is highly skilled in manipulating both social media, where he has millions of followers, and traditional media which he is experienced in since his days on the successful television show The Apprentice. Many key figures in the Republican Party fear clashing with him in the future because this could cost them among voters who follow Trump, especially if he decides to establish his own television station, and uses it to battle those who contradict him, whether by hosting his own show just for this purpose, or becoming a staple guest on shows that criticise Republicans and Democrats alike.

Even if Trump fails to win the support of Republican voters in the 2024 primaries, his threat to the party remains if he decides to run as an independent, as billionaire Ross Perot did in 1992 and won 19 per cent of votes. If this happens, an independent former president Trump can win double this figure or more, and create an unprecedented situation that would impact the two major parties and electoral structure in unpredictable ways.

Trump, an individualist, could make this scenario a reality. He had no strong party affiliation since he entered politics in 1987, and switched parties six times, including becoming a Democrat at one point. He enjoys a challenge and taking pioneering positions and decisions that others would not dare to adopt.

While Trump’s challenge of Republicans in the 2024 elections may not be a pressing issue, at least for now, Republicans are more urgently concerned about Trumpsters within the party, especially those who are key financiers of congressional and presidential elections. Reports in the US press say that Trump has more than $100 million in funds that were not spent during the presidential race, and that along with other donations will be used to fund the campaigns of other Republican candidates in Congress’s mid-term elections in two years’ time.

These funds and expected new donations are linked to wealthy families who strongly support Trump, such as the family of Sheldon Adelson which contributed $75 million to the political action committee Preserve America. Also, the Bernie Marcus family, which donated $5 million to the same super PAC, making it the second largest donor to Preserve America. These families are socially conservative and hardline supporters of a US foreign policy that does not tolerate rivals such as Iran, China and Russia.

Some believe that even if Trump’s supporters do not demand that the Republican Party keep Trump as an influential figure within the party or a possible candidate in 2024, they will precondition their continued support of the party to promoting figures who adopt similar positions to Trump’s, such as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Republicans do not want to preempt events and take clear positions towards Trump whether by upholding him as an influential figure or former president who governed in their name for four years, or by ignoring him and pushing him into oblivion. The problems facing Biden’s presidency are plenty if he fails to address the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic or fulfil his promises on healthcare, unemployment, restructuring taxes to favour the poor, and adopting environment-friendly policies.

At which time, any comparison between Biden and Trump will not be in the former’s favour. This would increase Trump’s popularity and further fuel the conspiracy theory that Trump was removed from office via a plot by Democrats and the silence by Republicans — or the majority of them. Trump stated as much a few days after the election, after the results began to tip towards Biden.

On 7 November, Donald Trump Jr, the president’s eldest son, said the Republican Party is “weak” in supporting his father in his bid to win the elections. Meanwhile, Trump’s younger son, Eric, raged: “Our voters will never forget you if your [sic] sheep.”

*A version of this article appears in print in the 17 December, 2020 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly.