Russia war in Ukraine was complicated enough when America threw the China card into the crisis this week. It threatened Beijing with severe consequences if it provides Moscow with economic or military support.
This has serious consequences. It opens a new front, a new narrative, and potentially divides the world into two camps: the free world against the autocratic. Unnamed US officials reportedly told multiple news outlets that Russia had asked China to provide military assistance, including drones.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry did not address the allegation directly, however, but accused the US of spreading disinformation about China. But China’s anger became clearer after US officials stated that Beijing has already decided to provide Russia with economic and financial support and is contemplating sending military supplies.
The US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, laid out the US case against Russia’s invasion in an “intense” meeting in Rome with his Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi, pointing out that Moscow had feigned interest in diplomacy while preparing for the invasion, and that the Russian military was clearly showing signs of frailty. After seven-hour talks, the Americans walked away from the Rome meeting with little hope that the Chinese government would change its mind about backing Moscow.
“They’ve already decided that they’re going to provide economic and financial support, and they underscored that today. The question really is whether they will go further,” according to one US official familiar with the discussions in statements made to The Guardian.
US sources stated that at the top of the Russian military shopping list from China are armed drones and various forms of ammunition. Russia also needs economic and financial aid quite urgently. Responding to US accusations, China warned of retaliation if hit by the falloutof Russian sanctions. It also slammed what it called the US efforts to spread disinformation and “distort and smear” its position on Ukraine, according to the country’s foreign minister.
“China is not party to the crisis, nor does it want sanctions to affect China,” Wang Yi told his Spanish counterpart, José Manuel Albares, in remarks published by the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Tuesday. “China has a right to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.”
China is a large importer of Russian energy and agricultural commodities and Western sanctions on these sectors might affect the country as a result. Chinese equities have been hit particularly hard, with Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks dropping lower than they’ve ever been since the global financial crisis in 2008 on Monday.
While the White House refused to confirm or deny reports of China’s openness to supporting Russia militarily and economically, State Department Spokesperson Ned Price said on Monday: “We are watching very closely the extent to which the [People’s Republic of China] or any country in the world provides support, material, economic, financial, rhetorical or otherwise, to this war of choice that President [Vladimir] Putin is waging. We have been very clear, both privately with Beijing, publicly with Beijing, that there would be consequences for any such support.”
Speaking about the China-Russia alliance, Price said, “clearly a case of two autocracies with a desire to see a world that is more closed, less open, less free, come together and in some ways joining forces. And we are watching very closely the form such cooperation may take.”
European diplomatic sources believe that America is trying to exploit the Russian-Ukrainian crisis to contain China, and this US effort will be evident to many European allies. Since the crisis, France and Germany have been in discussions with China to find a way towards a political settlement. Therefore, excluding Beijing from political solutions will be a potential source of conflict between Washington and its European allies.
Beijing and Moscow have grown closer in recent years. Their strong relationships were crowned by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping signing what was called the “no limits” partnership. The strategic objectives of this strong partnership are to strengthen economic, political and strategic relations between Moscow and Beijing and end American hegemony over the world order.
If at any point in the crisis China decided to support Russia with direct military aid, that would be a game-changer for global geopolitics as China will risk international isolation and a weaker economy because of the pressure that America will exert on its allies to impose sanctions against Beijing.
So far, there has been no reaction in European capitals to the US accusations against China. On Tuesday, the US National Security adviser travelled to Paris to discuss the Ukraine crisis there. China is Europe’s largest trading partner and in recent years economic cooperation has been boosted to unprecedented levels.
America is pressing its European allies to set a timetable for ending dependence on Russian oil and gas. So far, the results have been mixed. While Germany announced its intention to reduce its dependence on Russian coal and oil by the end of this year, it refused to set a timetable, warning that this would lead to the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs in Germany.
Germany’s Green Economy Minister Robert Habeck admitted that Europe in the past had fed Ukraine false promises, but said Germany could not afford “the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs” that a full energy embargo would bring about. He said Germany at best could be freed of Russian coal by autumn, and of its oil by the end of the year, but could set no date for ending German reliance on gas.
Allies of the Ukrainian president say Putin will only accept a compromise on Ukraine’s future neutrality if he is facing a credible threat to his economic power base by a rapid and permanent exclusion of Russia’s oil and gas exports from its lucrative European markets. The Russian government receives 40 per cent of its budget revenues from energy exports.
In an attempt to ensure the availability of enough oil in the markets and reduce the price of the barrel, which has reached record levels since the crisis, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson headed to Saudi Arabia to discuss increasing supply.
In an article for the Daily Telegraph, Johnson urged the West to end its “addiction” to Russian fuel, arguing that Western leaders had made a “terrible mistake” by letting Putin “get away with” annexing Crimea in 2014 and becoming more dependent on Russian power sources.
“We cannot go on like this,” he says. “The world cannot be subject to this continuous blackmail. As long as the West is economically dependent on Putin, he will do all he can to exploit that dependence. And that is why that dependence must – and will – now end.”
Johnson will have talks with Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman in the hope that Saudi Arabia can raise its production of oil and gas to make up for reduced reliance on Russia.
On the diplomatic track, negotiations continued between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations towards agreeing on safe humanitarian corridors around the capital, Kyiv, and the city of Mariupol in the south. But talks were taking place amid continued military strikes. Two powerful explosions rocked Kyiv before dawn on Tuesday. Emergency services said two people died when an apartment building in the capital was attacked. The death toll was later updated to four. Meanwhile, Russia’s Defence Ministry Spokesperson Igor Konashenkov said on Tuesday that Russian forces had taken full control of all territory in Ukraine’s southern Kherson region, Russian news agencies reported.
While the Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky warned that the Russian “war machine” will target other European countries if it is not stopped, his adviser Oleksiy Arestovych said the war in Ukraine is at a crossroads: “We are at a crossroads. Either we will agree at the current talks, or the Russians will make a second attempt [at an offensive], and then there will be talks again,” he said.
In a show of support, the leaders of Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovenia travelled to Ukraine’s capital on Tuesday on a European Union mission. “The visit aims to express the European Union’s unequivocal support for Ukraine and its freedom and independence,” Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said in a tweet. He was joined by Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, and Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who is Poland’s deputy prime minister for security and the leader of the ruling Conservative Party.
Meanwhile, the EU has formally agreed to the fourth package of sanctions, including an asset freeze and travel ban on Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich. The ban follows discussions among EU leaders in Versailles on Thursday and Friday. Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign affairs chief explained: “As President Putin’s war against Ukrainian people continues, so does our resolve to support Ukraine and cripple the financing of the Kremlin’s war machinery. This fourth package of sanctions is another major blow to the economic and logistic base on which Russia relies to invade Ukraine. The aim of the sanctions is that President Putin stops this inhuman and senseless war.”
The sanctions include an EU import ban on a range of steel products, a ban on new investments across the Russian energy sector, with limited exceptions for civil nuclear energy and the transport of certain energy products back to the EU, an EU export ban on luxury goods (e.g. luxury cars and jewellery) of over €300, a ban on the rating of Russia and Russian companies by EU credit rating agencies and the provision of rating services to Russian clients, which would result in them further losing access to the EU’s financial markets.
*A version of this article appears in print in the 17 March, 2022 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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