Voters in almost all of England, the main exception being London, go to polling stations on May 4 to choose their local representatives. This is the first test for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak who was chosen by the ruling Conservative (Tory) Party to replace Liz Truss who resigned after only six weeks in the post.
Since he assumed office at the end of last October, Sunak has been determined to salvage his party’s damaged reputation and regain the trust of the electorate. He was the third leader of the ruling party in almost a year. His predecessor caused an economic disaster in her few weeks in power, and her predecessor, Boris Johnson, was forced to resign after a series of problems ranging from nepotism to breaking the law.
That, in a nutshell, was the core team of Tory Eurosceptics who led the nation to vote for leaving the EU (Brexit) in the 2016 referendum. Though Sunak is also pro-Brexit, he was meant to distance himself from the calamities that led other Brexiteers to failure in the last few years. Yet the PM had to face another disaster, not so different from what had affected his party’s leading figures: the resignation of his Deputy Justice Minister Dominic Raab, just two weeks before the local elections.
Raab was a close ally of Sunak’s, and he is the third cabinet member to go in a few months. The party Chairman Nadhim Zahawi had to resign on tax evasion accusations. That he was being investigated for that had been known for a while, but Sunak appointed him anyway. Thereafter former education minister Gavin Williamson also resigned on bullying charges, and it seemed Sunak had been aware of his behaviour as well.
Bullying, breaking ministerial codes, convoluting laws were the main reasons behind almost all Tory figures exiting frontline politics. Dominic Raab was no different, as an investigation upheld accusations of him bullying and intimidating his subordinates in ministries he held from the Foreign Ministry to his last job.
Though many analysts rule out the idea that Raab might turn against Sunak, his fall is still a setback for both PM and party — even though Oxford University historian Andrew Hammond argues that this might even be a positive development as far as the PM is concerned. “I think it will help Sunak. He’s doing the best he can generally as the leader of an unpopular party that has been in power for over a decade. He’s unlikely to win a general election but managing to close the gap with Labour through giving the impression of competence, civility and normality — ridding himself of Raab in response to complaints only adds to that,” Hammond told Al-Ahram Weekly.
Critics nonetheless attacked Sunak for not openly sacking Raab. Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer criticised the PM for a delay in taking a decision and finally not sacking his deputy. Starmer said the resignation of Raab “shows there is weakness at the top of the Conservative Party”. Of course, the opposition leader wants to keep the gap between his Labour Party and Tory’s wide until general elections next year. Labour had almost a 30 per cent lead over the ruling party by the time Sunak came to power. Now the gap is narrower.
The main charge upheld against Dominic Raab by the investigation involved UK ambassador to Spain, whom Raab had undermined for being soft in Brexit-related negotiations with the Spaniards. So in a way it was Brexit that led to Raab’s fall, albeit indirectly. In fact, all Brexit figures in the Tory party fell for other reasons. But the common thing among all of them seemed to be arrogance, as some commentators point out.
“The mendacity of the Eurosceptics was always going to rise to the surface because it was obvious from the start. They conned a public that was vulnerable to fraudsters because it was sick of the ruling political class. The path is gradually being cleared for Britain to draw closer to the EU again,” Hammond said.
Labour leader Starmer is also for Brexit, and trying to base his election campaign on the slogan that he is the one who can “straighten things up” with Europe after a “shambolic exit”. But Sunak managed successfully to negotiate an amendment of the Northern Ireland protocol with the Europeans. Boris Johnson and other die-hard Brexiteers like Jacob Rees-Mog failed to sabotage Sunak’s achievement in Northern Ireland.
Competition for the next election is now mainly about who can best rectify the issues arising from exiting the EU — Tory Sunak or Labour’s Starmer. If Raab’s resignation did not cause a lot of damage to Sunak personally, he might be able to close the opinion polls gap with Labour and hope to win the next election. But historical patterns show that a party in office for more than a decade is unlikely to win, even if its opponent is not a favourable choice.
The realisation by the British people that Brexit did not bring the prosperity and welfare they were promised by Eurosceptics years ago and the failure of most Brexit figures have led to a loss of trust in the political process as a whole. So far, many analysts argue, neither Sunak nor Starmer are capable of restoring the public’s trust in politics. That might give other, smaller parties like the Liberal Democrats (LibDem) a better chance in next year’s vote.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 4 May, 2023 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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