Washington announced this week that it will send more military to the Gulf in response to Iran repeatedly seizing tankers passing the strategic Strait of Hormuz. White House Spokesperson John Kirby told a news briefing this week, “the Department of Defence will be making a series of moves to bolster our defensive posture in the Arabian Gulf.”
The US Navy’s Bahrain-based Fifth Fleet said it was working with regional allies to increase the rotation of ships and aircraft patrolling the Strait of Hormuz. “Iran’s unwarranted, irresponsible and unlawful seizure and harassment of merchant vessels must stop,” the Fifth Fleet Commander, Vice Admiral Brad Cooper said in a statement carried by Reuters. A spokesperson from the US military’s Florida-based Central Command, which oversees American forces in the Middle East, said the United States was discussing options with regional partners.
In the space of a single week, Iran had seized two tankers in the area, claiming that it also forced an American submarine to surface last month while entering Gulf waters, which the Americans denied.
Iran maintains that the seizure of the tankers is justified, and reiterates lawful justifications for the measures taken by the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) against the tankers. Earlier this month, the official news agency IRNA cited Tehran’s Public Prosecutor as saying that the oil vessel had been impounded by the IRGC Navy following a complaint by a plaintiff and on a judicial order.
But the US Fifth Fleet said in a statement that the Greek-owned tanker, going by the name of Niovi, was sailing from Dubai towards Fujairah, a port and oil terminal in the United Arab Emirates, when it was stopped by the IRGC naval units on 3 May.
Six days before that incident, Iran’s Navy seized a Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker in the Sea of Oman. The Iranians claimed the oil tanker, named Advantage Sweet, had been involved in a maritime accident with an Iranian fishing craft, which resulted in the injury and disappearance of a number of its crew. Tehran said that, after the collision, the oil tanker attempted to flee the scene in a serious breach of international laws and regulations, which require the provision of medical treatment and supply of proper and sufficient medicine to seamen in case of sickness or injury.
Last month, Iranian Navy Commander Shahram Irani told state television that Iran’s navy forced a US submarine to surface as it entered the Gulf, but the United States Navy’s Fifth Fleet denied that any such incident had taken place. Reuters quoted Commander Timothy Hawkins at the time saying: “A US submarine has not transited the Strait of Hormuz today or recently.”
Many in the region, notably the Israelis, are not impressed with the American response to Iranian provocations, according to the Israeli media. Though the intended military build-up might be a two-toned message from the Americans – standing up to Iran and supporting Arab Gulf allies – it has not had the expected effect. In fact, it is seen as “too little too late” for an impact on the region’s perception of the American role to register.
Saudi commentator Abdul-Aziz AlKhames told Al-Ahram Weekly, “that won’t change the mood in the Gulf. People are asking where the Americans were when they were needed. The Americans are talking about the Iranians arming the Houthis in Yemen now? And this military build-up in the Gulf looks like an attempt to sabotage the Saudi-Iranian détente.” This view is shared by some analysts who blame the Americans for stalling the political process to end the war in Yemen. Others see current developments as a delayed response to increased Chinese influence in the region.
Israeli commentator Amos Harel wrote in Haaretz this week that the US is not winning the trust of Israeli leadership when it comes to policy on Iran. He notes that the events of recent years led the Gulf states to look for alternative paths. “If America won’t attack Iran, it will be wise to mitigate the tension with Tehran. And if all recent US administrations – from Barack Obama to Trump and Biden – are seeking to reduce their military presence in the Middle East and focus their interests on the competition with China and with Russia, a more cautious line needs to be taken between the great powers and ties need to be strengthened with China.”
The change in the Gulf based on anticipating waning American interest in the region is probably irreversible – at least for now. Sending more warships or other arms to the Gulf or carrying joint patrols with Gulf partners is unlikely to make much difference. Countries in the region were not exclusive in their bond with the United States; strengthening ties with other powers like China and Russia and reconciling with Iran. Even their normalisation with Israel is driven by the same perception of American disengagement with the region, as American commentator Max Boot wrote this week in The Washington Post: “It was actually the signing of the Abraham Accords in the summer of 2020… that signalled the emergence of a post-American order in the Middle East.”
Almost all the countries in the region have already concluded that they need to carve a new path on their own and to move away from reliance on active American involvement.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 18 May, 2023 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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