Almost exactly 50 years passed between 6 October 1973 and 7 October 2023.

October 1973 witnessed a historic event: the first Arab victory in a battle with Israel. This was preceded by planning, building a military front, and the participation of all segments of society. It was the result of the unity of a great people with their army, and of the dedication of educated individuals and those with advanced degrees to military service, who sacrificed their careers without knowing when they would return to civilian life.

It was a battle that aimed at changing a situation that had persisted for six years after a humiliating defeat had taken place in six hours. The goal was to negotiate from a position respected by the enemy. It was a calculated gamble that carried terrifying risks. The most important outcome of it was the return of Sinai to Egypt and the restoration of sovereignty over its land.

Regardless of what pessimists say about the October 1973 War, trying to portray it as a defeat because it did not go further in the campaign against Israel, there are many lessons to be gained from it.

The first is that the Egyptian army and people are one entity. Without the support of Egyptian civil society for the Armed Forces, victory would not have been possible. Attempts to divide the country by separating the army from the people and dividing the population into ideological, religious, or geographical groups will always fail due to the overarching cultural awareness of a great nation.

The second is that without fundamental changes in the military that emphasised its professionalism and coordinated civilian, diplomatic, and military efforts, there would have been no victory in October 1973. The earlier military action that had led to defeat changed to one that led to victory.

Fifty years later, the events of 7 October 2023 saw Hamas attacking Israel without taking into account long-term considerations. I asked who would pay the price for this at the time and offered the answer “most likely, the Palestinian people.” A year after the 7 October events, we can now measure and document the outcomes.

Israel launched a war of extermination against the Palestinian people, destroying the Gaza Strip and displacing millions. It tested world opinion, confirming its absolute military and financial support from the US, with US politicians racing to please it in a manner never seen before.

Israel also confirmed the continuing slumber of the Arab world and the tragedy of Arab leaders who cannot work together on a joint condemnation of Israel’s criminal acts. Instead, they have stifled their young people, even as protests at Western universities have filled the news, together with Western condemnations of Israel’s brutality. We have not seen any protests from Arab university students, nor expressions of public outrage, despite knowing that they exist.

Israel’s actions are part of an agenda that extends beyond Palestine. Was Israel’s action in launching its campaign against Gaza simply folly, or was it part of plans promoted by the extremist government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and reaffirmed in late September this year with the second invasion of Lebanon?

Israel’s actions are part of a long-term vision to create significant realities on the ground that will reshape the Middle East. In my view, this will also involve Sinai, though not in this phase. The crude aggression against Gaza is being carried out by a gang, not a state, and one that believes that it possesses immunity from the law, not only on an international level but also within the regional context, and relies on a technological, military, and financial superiority that reflects the Western colonisation of the Arab world in a new form.

The belief that the ongoing conflict is a settling of scores between Israel and Iran is nothing but political naivety, avoiding the larger confrontation. The real conflict is not between these two countries, since it is in fact about working towards new arrangements overseen by the United States. These arrangements give Iran influence in Iraq and superficial security in exchange for altering the political map of the region and establishing a sectarian system that serves its strategic interests. They are a way of dividing the Arabs to benefit a new form of Western colonialism and a ruthless Zionist project to impose a “Greater Israel” in historic Palestine.

This project has been revealed during the war against Gaza and Lebanon, where redrawn maps of the region, first published and then withdrawn, have sent messages that have imprinted themselves on the consciousness of the Arab world about the true nature of Israel. The talk of new arrangements in the Middle East by Netanyahu’s government is not about a restoration of the pre-7 October 2023 order but towards significant changes in it. If Israel continues according to this plan, it will need further “major events” to implement it.

The current war is not a response to an act that could have ended in hours, but part of an ongoing US-British plan for a new Middle East in which nations and peoples vanish. In response to it, the weapons that the Arab states possess are also capable of initiating a comprehensive change to create a new Middle East.

Oil is one such weapon, already used sparingly during the October 1973 War. Arab human resources are another such weapon in the shape of the potential of the Arab youth, especially that of Egypt, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, which could become a formidable force if we prioritise education, training, capacity-building, and the creation of opportunities.

We should not react impulsively to the Zionist and Western campaign in the Middle East. Instead, we must pursue sustainable solutions. Cooperation between Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iraq may be at the heart of standing up to the Zionist tide.

In a recent article, commentator Ibrahim Nawar noted that even a rational person can deceive himself and others to the point where he becomes a victim of deception. This can be seen happening widely in politics and international relations today, amplified by the media and social media. But true understanding comes from learning, and learning comes from listening with an open mind. Too often, the Arab leaders see only what they wish to see.

 “We have much to look forward to and much to protect,” Ibrahim Nawar wrote. “Our destiny is in our hands. We are the masters of our future, capable of crafting what we want, whether right or wrong. The key is knowledge and action, and we must stop celebrating failure as if it were a victory worth commemorating.”

* A version of this article appears in print in the 31 October, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly