The rapid and unexpected advance of armed factions into Syria’s second largest city after Damascus may be a watershed moment heralding a new political and military landscape. 

It throws into relief Syrian territory as an Eastern Mediterranean soft spot, politically and economically unstable, and vulnerable to external interventions from all sides. No side can secure control of the entire territory, yet no side is willing to compromise, leaving the Syrian people exhausted from the warfare that has ravaged their country for more than 13 years. 

The attacks on Aleppo came after countless Israeli strikes against Iranian-backed militias and Iranian personnel in Syria and the return of many Iran-aligned Hizbullah fighters from Syria to Lebanon to fight the Israeli aggression there. The Syrian army’s defences were weakened as a result, creating conditions favourable to its enemies. 

The attacks also came after Russian-brokered reconciliation talks between the Turkish and Syrian regimes failed to secure a breakthrough. Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad’s rejection of the terms Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had laid out for restoring bilateral relations spurred the latter’s decision to support the Aleppo offensive. 

Justifying this step, Ankara stated that the militia forces had acted because of the Syrian regime’s refusal to respond to opposition demands, implement UN resolutions, and pursue a political solution to the crisis in the country.

Disagreements between Moscow and Damascus, which have recently surfaced, also prepared the ground for the attack. The Russian strategy for the past three years has aimed to weaken Iranian military and political influence in Syria. 

However, Iran’s influence has steadily increased during this period. Not even Israeli bombardments could persuade Damascus to sever its ties with Iran and stop Iranian arms flows through Syrian territory. Recent high-level exchanges between Damascus and Tehran confirm that the Syrian-Iranian alliance is still strong and growing.

Although the situation on the ground is still fluid, it appears that Syrian rebels, the dominant faction of which is the Al-Qaeda breakaway the Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) group, currently control over a third of Syrian territory. 

Foreign stakeholders in the Syrian conflict urge a political solution as the only way to stop the violence and achieve stability. Western powers, led by the US and followed by France, the UK, and Germany, have issued statements attributing the current situation to the Syrian government’s rejection of the Western-sponsored political process and calling for the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 2254, which was approved by major international and regional powers.

It will be difficult for the Syrian regime to regain control of Aleppo, as it does not have sufficient military strength to take on the opposition forces that have consolidated their positions in a city that also offers them a supportive environment. 

Unless Moscow changes its strategy and decides to intervene, the regime only has air power to rely on. This would be very destructive, but it will not be able to drive out the fighters who will resort to urban guerrilla tactics. 

Turkey has an interest in keeping Aleppo as a “friendly” zone for the purposes of its national security. The US and the West in general do not oppose the Syrian opposition’s control of Aleppo, as long as extremist factions do not rule it. 

The Arab countries are torn between supporting the regime, as the official representative of the state, and their desire for the Syrian people to realise their potential in a free democratic country so that Syria can contribute positively to the region.

Badr Jamous, head of the Syrian opposition negotiating committee, told Al-Ahram Weekly that “in the critical phase that Syria is experiencing, we hope our Arab brothers and the Arab League will play an active and constructive role in sparing the Syrian people enormous sacrifices by pressuring Al-Assad to accept the political solution agreed upon by all the world powers, including his main ally Russia, and based on the Geneva Communique and UN Security Council Resolution 2254.”

“If the Arabs support the regime, this will only lead to further conflict and anarchy in the region. The Syrian political opposition continues to reach out for a lasting political solution, guaranteed internationally and by the Arab powers, and based on international resolutions, the Geneva Communique, and UN Resolution 2254.”

“Our hope is to end the Syrian tragedy and spare the region more tension. We are advocates of peace, not war. We have always believed in the Arab role and the political solution and building a safe and stable Syria that poses no threat or danger to anyone.”

The Syrian armed factions’ military depends on the variable interests of the powers that support it. Any progress it makes on the ground could be reversed or compromised if those interests change. Ultimately, questions of territorial control and rule are contingent on regional and international power balances.

Iranian affairs expert Diaa Qaddour told  the Weekly that “we urge our Arab brothers to reassess the Syrian question from a new perspective, independently from calculations regarding whether Al-Assad remains in power.”

“The Arabs have always stood by the free Syrian people. They do so on principle, and it is a non-negotiable stance. They should seize this unique opportunity to eliminate the Iranian presence in Syria. The spread of the revolutionary factions across the whole of Syrian territory does not present any risks to the region.”

 All the Syrian opposition forces agree that only a credible political process in the framework of UN Security Council Resolution 2254 can end the war and enable a speedy transition to stability, security, development, and reconstruction in a democratic state. 

 The Syrian conflict, nearing the end of its 14th year, has led to a million casualties, millions of internally displaced, and the dispersion of nearly half of the Syrian population to other countries around the world. 

It has brought the destruction of infrastructure, economic deterioration, and a humanitarian situation that verges on the brink of catastrophe. Syria has become an Iranian backyard and a playground for its militias. The attrition in Syria must end because of its repercussions not just for Arab countries but also for Europe. 

Aleppo may now be the crossroads that leads either to a political solution consistent with international resolutions or to further disaster and tragedy for Syria and the region. 

Political analyst Saeed Moqbel told the Weekly that “what is happening now reflects an international and regional resolve to weaken Iranian influence and its militias in Syria, if not to eliminate them entirely, and an international desire to move the political solution forward based on Resolution 2254.”

“This is what we will see in the coming months: real pressure towards implementing this resolution under Russian and Arab supervision and with international monitoring.”

Syrians now place their hopes on new and clear positions from the Arab powers and Russia, so that progress can be made towards a genuine political solution leading to a sustainable peace. This means working towards a system of government that does not monopolise power or conflate the state with a single person or group.”

“It means supporting measures that heal the wounds of this grief-stricken country and make it safe for its citizens,” Moqbel said.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 5 December, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly