The complexity of the situation is being increased by news that each person explains as he or she wishes.
Some politicians and political analysts in Iraq have been frightening the public with what has been happening in neighbouring Syria, along with the imminent arrival of US President-elect Donald Trump in the White House in January and the possibility of Israeli strikes on resistance factions.
Others say that Iraq remains secure and that the developments in Syria are more positive than negative, said Halim Salman, editor-in-chief of the Al-Shabaka Al-Iraqiya magazine in an interview with Al-Ahram Weekly.
“It has woken up the politicians to the fact that Iraq comes first as well as the Iraqis and the Iraqi security forces,” he said.
Salman said that Iraqi politicians are aware that the Syrian regime was brought down by the Syrian people and that they know that ultimately the people can change the regime at any moment.
They know that foreign interventions have harmed Syria and that those led by the Americans, the Turks, the Iranians and others in Iraq must be stopped in order to pay more attention to the Iraqi people, he added.
Political analyst Abdel-Ameer Al-Majar is not optimistic about the situation in Iraq, telling the Weekly that further trouble may be in store.
“There is no doubt that what happened in Syria will affect the entire region, Iraq particularly, because it has created a dangerous geopolitical variable, represented by the threat of ending the Iranian influence in the region, or weakening it to a large extent,” he said.
“This could affect the [Shiite] parties in Iraq with their major influence in the political arena, as they are known for their connection to Iran at the level of doctrine and political vision and have become exposed and face major challenges.”
“Their future as active political and military forces is unknown and open to many possibilities,” Al-Majar said, adding that there are no fears of the return of the Islamic State group (IS) in Iraq, explaining to the Weekly that any such fears are “a media mask behind which there is a political reading hidden by political parties close to Iran.”
Media reports in Iraq said that one of the country’s Sunni leaders who has relations with Turkey and Qatar went at dawn on Thursday on a secret visit to Damascus to meet with new Syrian leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa, aka Abu Mohamed Al-Jolani.
His visit, made under Turkish cover, enabled the Iraqi politician to convey messages indicating that Iraq is committed to Iraqi security and will not try to harm the new Syrian political leadership, the reports said.
Iraq will also not be a passage for the transfer of weapons or a source of security threats. According to the media reports, sources said that the response from the Syrian side was positive, as it also pledged not to harm Iraqi security.
There have been other positive signs from Iraq, among them raising the flag of the Syrian revolution at the Syrian Embassy in Baghdad and tweets from high-ranking Iraqi officials, including from National Security Adviser Qasim Al-Araji on the X platform.
Al-Araji said that “the return of normal life, the opening of schools and government departments, and the rise in the exchange rate of the Syrian lira are all positive indicators of stability. We wish the brotherly Syrian people security, safety, and prosperity through the efforts of its sons.”
Marjaeya Sayyed Ali Al-Sistani, the highest Shiite religious authority in Iraq, met with Envoy of the UN Secretary General in Iraq and head of the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) Mohamed Al-Hassan on 12 December, at his headquarters in the city of Najaf for the second time in less than two months to discuss developments in the region and especially in Syria.
Al-Hassan revealed some of the contents of the meeting, saying that Al-Sistani was “keen on preserving Iraq from the conflicts occurring in the region” and adding that “we discussed ways of avoiding conflicts that could harm Iraq” and “direct coordination with UNAMI and the Iraqi government.”
Earlier on 4 November Al-Hassan also met Al-Sistani in Najaf and discussed security and political developments in the wake of the ongoing war on Gaza and Lebanon and the need for Iraq to avoid being dragged into the conflict.
Al-Sistani called on Iraqis in a statement to “fight corruption at all levels, restrict arms to the state, prevent foreign interference, and enforce the rule of law,” saying that there was some way to go in achieving these things.
He has not talked to Iraqi politicians.
Talk shows on Iraqi satellite TV channels continue to discuss restricting arms to the government, dissolving the Popular Mobilisation Forces (Hashd) and integrating their elements into the Iraqi Army, and abolishing the factions within the resistance axis.
Some say that the US wants the Iraqi government to dissolve the factions and prevent Iran from interfering in Iraq’s internal affairs, while others say that the resistance is legitimate and that the Iraqi government should not meet such demands, whether from the US or others.
Ahmed Hassan, a retired engineer from Mosul, told the Weekly that the ongoing events in Syria constitute the Syrian revolution. The Iraqis had learned the lessons of the recent past, he said, and would not allow IS or any other terrorist groups to attack again, especially as the Iraqi Armed Forces are strong enough to defend the country’s borders.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 19 December, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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