“Egypt enjoys a unique geographical position.”
This is a line that all students in Egypt come across at an early stage of the geography curriculum at school. The explanation references the country’s shores on both the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea and territories that extend from the extreme west of Asia into East and North Africa.
Over the past few days this statement has been appearing in social media, with many people saying that Egypt enjoys a unique geographical position that overlooks hell from every side. This cynicism relates to the complicated situation on the country’s eastern border with the military confrontation between Israel and Iran after Israel, situated on the eastern border with Egypt, attacked Iran late last week.
The social media remarks are indicative of the aggravation of an already complex situation. Prior to the Israeli strikes on Iran and the retaliatory strikes of Iran on Israel, with missiles and drones being heard in several neighbouring countries, including Jordan and parts of the Sinai Peninsula, Egypt was already grappling with a tense situation with the genocidal Israeli war on Gaza to the east, the conflicts in Sudan and Libya, and matters relating to undocumented migration from the south to the north of the Mediterranean.
“This is one of the most challenging moments for Egypt’s foreign policy, not just because of the conflicts but also because of the unpredictability of their path and the complicated calculations that Egypt has to make on every front,” said a retired Egyptian diplomat.
He added that the fact that Egypt’s interests on almost every front “coincide with the interests of some of its close allies, both at the regional and international level,” means that Egypt needs the support of these “specific allies” to manage economic challenges “that are actually made much worse due to these conflicts.”
With the Israel-Iran military confrontation lasting less than a week, Egypt has already suffered several economic problems due to the conflict, including a decline in gas imports from Israel leading to concerns over electricity production throughout the summer, an increase in the exchange rate in favour of the US dollar, increases in food prices, and concerns over supply chains and the levels of tourism that Egypt was hoping would pick up throughout the year.
The opening of the Grand Egyptian Museum (GEM), which was scheduled for 3 July, has been postponed after the beginning of the Israel-Iran confrontation.
According to a government source familiar with Iran-Egypt relations, including the talks of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghachi in Cairo earlier this month, “this situation puts on hold for a long while to come” chances for cooperation that were being considered with Iran, including trade, energy, and tourism.
The source added that both Cairo and Tehran were going to start a process of consultation on possible cooperation and a possible exchange of visits that could have led to the resumption of full diplomatic relations. These were severed in 1980 by Tehran when Egypt under former president Anwar Al-Sadat hosted Iran’s last shah who was ousted by the Iranian Revolution and was refused by several world capitals when approached for a refuge.
The decision of the Iranian authorities to remove the name of Khaled Al-Islambouli, one of Sadat’s assassins, from one of Tehran’s main roads, the same source said, was a sign that “things were moving in the right direction.”
He said that Egypt was aware, “like everyone else in the region, that an Israeli strike against Iran was highly likely, but we were also following the US-Iran talks, which did not seem to have hit an impasse.”
The confrontation between Israel and Iran is bound to have an impact on the chances for closer relations between Cairo and Tehran, the source said. On Friday, Egypt issued a statement that qualified the Israeli attacks on Iran as “a flagrant violation of international law and the UN Charter.”
However, as the source explained, the statement was “very carefully worded”, not just in associating the position against the strikes with international law and the UN Charter but also in qualifying them as “a direct threat to regional and international peace and security”.
While Egypt has not had full diplomatic ties with Iran for over 45 years despite cooperation on several multinational fronts in relation to the interests of the developing countries, it has been committed to the stability of its peaceful relations with Israel that were launched upon the signing of the Peace Treaty between the two countries in 1979.
This has been the case despite moments of high-level tension, including the Israeli military presence in the Philadelphi Corridor on the borders between Egypt and Gaza and the long months of the Israeli war on Gaza since 7 October 2023 that is threatening instability on the Egyptian borders with Gaza.
Over the past few months, government officials who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly said that Cairo has no intention and no interest in rocking the boat with Israel. This week, the same position was shared.
“Of course, there is tension, and it is very clear that Egypt dropped Israel off the list of diplomatic postings that came out a few weeks ago and that it has not sent its official agreement to Israel over the nomination of an Israeli ambassador to Egypt,” said a source with a close association to Egyptian-Israeli relations.
However, he added that despite this Cairo has a close rapport with Israel and has been consistently involved, along with Qatar and the US, in trying to put an end to the Israeli war on Gaza.
None of the tracks of economic cooperation between Egypt and Israel have been hampered by the diplomatic unease between the two countries, including negotiations over the flow and pricing of Israeli natural gas to Egypt, private-sector cooperation, and regular security meetings.
The stability of Egyptian-Israeli relations, as diplomats have repeatedly stated, is a political decision that is not just subject to the commitment of both sides but also to the firm endorsement of key international players, especially Washington.
“Washington is not just a very close source of support for Egyptian-Israeli peace and not just a key [military partner] for Egypt [as decided by the Egyptian-Israeli Peace Treaty], but it is also a very important ally when it comes to the country’s economic stability,” said the same diplomat, who had served in the US capital.
Today, government sources say that despite the suppressed tensions over the failure of the Egyptian state to immediately accommodate the proposal of US President Donald Trump for the displacement of Gazans into Egyptian territories, which lead to the cancellation of presidential meetings, the channels of communication and cooperation are uninterrupted.
“There are constant consultations on regional matters, either through the [Egyptian] Embassy [in Washington] or [the American] Embassy in Cairo — and also through telephone calls at the ministerial level,” the same government source said.
The relations with Israel and the rapprochement with Iran, he added, are part of the consultations, in addition to other regional developments, especially the conflicts in Sudan and Libya “where Egypt and the US are generally on the same page.”
There is also the unresolved conflict over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), especially as Addis Ababa plans to build more dams on the Blue Nile to the disadvantage of Egypt’s historic and rightful share of the Nile water.
On Sunday, the office of Egypt’s foreign minister announced phone calls between Egypt’s top diplomat Badr Abdelatty and both US Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and US Presidential Advisor on the Middle East and Africa Massaad Boulos.
According to the statement from Abdelatty’s office, the call with Witkoff addressed the regional developments after the Israeli-Iranian confrontation and the chances for de-escalation. The call with Boulos, according to the same statement, discussed developments in Sudan and Libya and the African Great Lakes.
Some of these issues, the government source said, were on the agenda of the phone calls that President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi conducted with counterparts in several capitals, including Ankara. On Monday, Egypt joined 19 other countries that are members of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation to appeal for an end to the Israel-Iran confrontation that has exacerbated regional tensions and is threatening serious consequences.
Issued by the foreign ministers of the respective countries, the statement underlined the need for the respect of state sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the peaceful resolutions of conflicts. It reiterated the need for the pursuit of making the Middle East a zone free of nuclear weapons and called on all states in the region to join the treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
“This current confrontation between Israel and Iran is not just about the exchange of strikes that has been unfolding. It is also about the fate of the non-proliferation regime in the region,” said another former diplomat who has served in Egypt’s diplomatic mission to the UN in New York.
Iran is a member of the NPT, but Israel has declined to join the treaty and has “managed to get away with its nuclear ambiguity policy due to unwavering American support,” especially during the 1995 extension of the NPT.
However, the diplomat said, if Iran were to threaten to walk out of the NPT, this would possibly open the door for a nuclear race in the region because “while the [Arab] Gulf countries are not hiding their unease over Iran’s nuclear programme, there is no telling what they would do if Tehran decided to quit the NPT.”
Meanwhile, the government source said that Egypt is “really worried” over the possible fallout of this confrontation if it is not contained soon. It is true, he said, that Iran has lost its regional edge with the strikes that Israel had dealt to most of its influential non-state actors in the region, but this does not mean that Tehran is without influence.
Egypt’s most pressing worry, he said, relates to the Houthis in Yemen, whose attacks on vessels crossing the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait on their way to the Suez Canal have cost Egypt a considerable loss of foreign-currency revenue.
“There is the keen Egyptian appeal for de-escalation, and this is something that we are working on with several partners. But the US is the most crucial player when it comes to the Israel-Iran confrontation, the Israeli war on Gaza, and the conflicts in Sudan and Libya,” he added.
On Friday, just as the Israel-Iran strikes started to unfold, Egypt was on the alert regarding developments both to its south and west, as the Sudanese militia the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which have been in a conflict with the Cairo-supported Sudanese Armed Forces, took control of the borders of Egypt, Sudan, and Libya.
This development, the government source said, was worrying for Egypt not only because it is an indication of the level of “encroachment” of the RSF, but also because of the fact that it occurred in cooperation with some informal fighters from Eastern Libya.
“There have been some candid conversations on these issues at some very high levels during the past two weeks, especially during the past week,” he said. However, he added that it is hard to say that an agreement has been reached to refrain from empowering militias such as the RSF or encouraging the involvement of militias from Libya in Sudan, especially with regard to the shared borders that Egypt has with both countries.
With no clear forecast for the Israel-Iran confrontation in sight, and with the uninterrupted Israeli war on Gaza, and concern over the impact of the Israel-Iran confrontation on regional stability, the government source said that the last thing that Egypt wants to see is further tension either on its southern or western borders.
All state bodies have been on high alert, he added, to avoid any “unpleasant surprises” on the borders.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 19 June, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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