For months, the UN and its specialised agencies and international partners have been warning of a critical food situation and imminent famine in Gaza.
As senior UN officials and experts have noted, “famine doesn’t happen suddenly.” This is particularly true of Gaza where the famine is man-made, deliberately engineered by Israel through its intensified blockade of the enclave.
Last Friday, US Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff headed to Gaza accompanied by US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee to follow up on efforts to distribute humanitarian aid and to meet with residents affected by the war.
The previous day, Witkoff met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as part of an effort to revive the ceasefire talks, according to Reuters. These developments occurred amid increasing international pressure on Israel in response to the ongoing devastation and suffering caused by its military operations and use of starvation as a weapon of war.
Hamas leader Izzat Al-Rishq dismissed Witkoff’s visit to Gaza as a “propaganda show”. Its sole purpose is “to contain the mounting anger over the US-Israeli partnership in starving our people in the Gaza Strip,” he said.
In Gaza, Witkoff will see only what the Israeli occupying power wants him to see, Al-Rishq pointed out. “He views the ongoing tragedy through Israeli eyes. Certainly, he will not see the starvation machine — the so-called Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) — which prepares the ground for slaughter by the Israeli war machine,” he said.
Since the GHF operations began, over 800 people have been killed and 5,200 have been injured while seeking food, according to Palestinian health authorities and other reports. UN Palestinian refugee agency (UNRWA) officials and others have described GHF distribution points as “death traps.” Soldiers interviewed by Haaretz confirmed that they routinely use live fire against aid-seekers, killing several people per day.
The Witkoff visit does not signify that Israel can no longer deny its crimes or that the US will no longer help to cover them up. US President Donald Trump has described the situation in Gaza as “terrible,” saying “that’s real starvation. I see it, and you can’t fake that.”
Such remarks directly contradict Netanyahu’s claim that the Israeli and international media are spreading “false pictures.” However, Trump avoided assigning blame. When asked whether he agreed with his Republican ally, Congresswomen Marjorie Taylor Greene, who described the situation in Gaza as “genocide,” he sidestepped the question.
For many, the issue of famine in Gaza seems straightforward, especially when children are dying from starvation in large numbers. Yet, there appears to be some controversy among humanitarian workers and agencies over how to classify the situation in the Occupied Palestinian enclave.
Nevertheless, according to ReliefWeb, a leading humanitarian information source on global crises, “famine is no longer a looming threat in Gaza – it is a deadly reality.”
Similarly, in a 29 July statement, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said that “Palestinians in Gaza are enduring a humanitarian catastrophe of epic proportions. This is not a warning. It is a reality unfolding before our eyes.”
On 29 July, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), a global initiative for monitoring and classifying food insecurity and famine risk, confirmed that two famine thresholds — catastrophic food insecurity and acute malnutrition in children — have been met across much of Gaza and that the crisis is particularly severe in Gaza City.
On 27 July, the World Health Organisation (WHO) reported that over 40 per cent of pregnant and breastfeeding women in Gaza are severely malnourished, putting both maternal and infant lives at risk. Also, in Gaza City, nearly one in five children under five are acutely malnourished — triple the rate of the previous month.
The third famine threshold is excess mortality. According to the IPC, this has not been officially confirmed, because deaths are difficult to verify in Gaza, where most of the health system has collapsed.
This throws into relief a problem that agencies encounter in identifying famine: they rely on data which may not be available.
“It’s a very high bar, and the nature of the process is that if the data aren’t there, you say it’s not a famine,” Alex de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Foundation at Tufts University in the US, said in an interview with the US network ABC News.
De Waal, an expert on the Horn of Africa who has written extensively on famines and famine-related policies, added that even when a famine is declared it carries no legal obligation. “The word ‘famine’ has no meaning in law,” he said.
Many experts argue that famine should be declared in Gaza because, as history has shown, by the time a famine is officially recognised, it will be too late for many. Because the process is data driven, the UN cannot officially declare a famine, even when people are already dying of starvation, as is already happening in Gaza.
Scott Paul, director of peace and security at NGO Oxfam America, told ABC News that in the Somalia famine in 2012 over half the deaths occurred before a famine was declared. “So, the importance of taking action before famine is declared can’t be overstated,” he said.
Following the Somali famine of 2004, UN agencies developed a five-phase classification system to ensure timely declarations of famine. The IPC initiative was developed by 21 international organisations, including the World Food Programme (WFP), the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), the children’s agency UNICEF, WHO, CARE International, and Oxfam.
The five phases of acute food insecurity range from minimal/none (Phase 1) to catastrophe/famine (Phase 5):
Phase 1 – Minimal / none: There is no acute food crisis. People can meet their basic food needs without resorting to irreversible coping strategies (like selling furniture or livestock). Less than five per cent of the population suffers from malnutrition. People have stable incomes and consume over 2,100 calories per day.
Phase 2 – Stressed: People meet minimum food needs and can afford some essential non-food items without resorting to harmful coping mechanisms. Household income is irregular. Five to 10 per cent of the population suffers from acute malnutrition. People still get about 2,100 calories per day, which is barely enough to meet basic nutritional needs.
Phase 3 – Crisis: Households face food consumption gaps and acute malnutrition, or they can only meet food needs by depleting essential assets. Food options are limited. Ten to 15 per cent of the population is acutely malnourished. Incomes drop sharply, and people must resort to crisis coping strategies to access required calories.
Phase 4 – Emergency: Large food consumption gaps, extremely high rates of acute malnutrition, and excess mortality, or food needs are met only through the sale of remaining assets and income loss is irreversible. Some 15 to 30 per cent of the population suffer from acute malnutrition. People can only access three or fewer food groups (e.g., fruit, grains, and vegetables) and consume less than 2,100 calories per day.
Phase 5 – Catastrophe/Famine: A complete lack of access to food and essential needs. 20 per cent of households face extreme food gaps and deprivation, after having exhausted all coping strategies. Hunger, death, destitution, and visible severe malnutrition are widespread. At least two out of every 10,000 people die daily from hunger or related disease. Over 30 per cent of the population suffers from acute malnutrition. Over 30 per cent of children under five suffer from wasting (a form of acute malnutrition.) Income sources are non-existent or collapsed, and people can only access one or two food groups. Caloric intake is critically insufficient.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 7 August, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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