David Sims, an economist and author who has been working in Cairo since 1974, spoke to an audience Thursday at the Netherlands-Flemish Institute about various development projects in Egypt and his most recent publication, Egypt’s Desert Dreams- Development or Disaster?.
In his book he has concluded that the current government’s projects include, but are not limited to, 26 new cities across 21 governorates, the extension of the greater Cairo area to reach the Gulf of Suez, mining and metallurgy centres for 22 cities and eight new international airports.
Throughout his lecture, Sims critiqued and evaluated both the Egyptian governments current planned projects as well as their historical attempts to build residential, commercial and industrial centres on the outskirts of Cairo and in other governorates- and most importantly in the desert.
He began the lecture by discussing the project that President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi announced during his electoral campaign known as the “four million feddan project” which is the cornerstone of the governments land reclamation plans.
Sims is largely critical of repeated government attempts to develop housing, commercial and industrial centres in the desert, citing the lack of planning involved and says that the upcoming projects will face similar problems.
“It is supposed to claim one million feddans every year for four years,” Sims stated, though added “they’re already a year behind schedule.”
Speaking about satellite towns on the outskirts of Cairo and how they are largely vacant, Sims says that upcoming projects will face similar problems.
“In the new towns today, vacancies are at least 60 per cent. If ever the projects which are now under construction are actually finished, they are going to have water needs that I don’t think they are going to be able to satisfy.
“Especially because they are very high consuming due to all the green spaces. It may be that energy is the thing that kills these developments if Egypt ever has to pay anything near world prices for its electricity, fuel or natural gas,” Sims said.
Sims also highlights that the residential settlements on the outskirts of Cairo are creating unprecedented social segregation.
He argues that unlike Heliopolis that was founded in 1905 on the outskirts of Cairo -- which provided housing for all social classes -- the new settlements are predominantly for the upper middle-class and elite classes.
Sim says “There is this whole trend, especially around Greater Cairo, which is creating a social segregation which this country has never had.”
On the new administrative capital that was announced during March’s Economic Development Conference in March, which if plans go ahead would be built east of Cairo, Sims confronts some of the likely social problems that he argues are likely to arise.
One of these problems is the percentage of car ownership amongst Egypt’s population, which sits at about seven per cent, Sims said.
“If the new administrative capital reaches the targeted population of about five million people, it will virtually absorb every family that has a car. This is the scale of things which no one seems to ask about.”
Although the Egyptian government has repeatedly envisioned grand desert schemes for decades, Sims argues that there is rarely any critical oversight or accountability.
“From the beginning, the desert has been treated as something to throw away, use for various purposes and rarely accounted for,” he said.
Sims said that during the last year he had seen nothing about protection or the inventory of public lands. “Instead there has been lots of talk about attracting investors- as in the Sharm el-Sheik conference and the famous figure of $55 billion in investments.”
The issue of employment is at the forefront of many of these projects, Sims argued, though the amount of jobs that have been created in the past by desert developments has been minimal.
“There has probably been less than 1.8 million jobs created in the desert in the last 15 years – and half of these are in bachelor mode – because they [employees] never settle there. As for the tourist villages in Sinai, 95 per cent never settle there.”
Although Sims cautioned to say that none of the current projects would be successful, he warned of some of the potential intentions that are behind the governments grand schemes.
“Why does the scramble into the desert continue? The state needs legitimacy, cheerleaders, and a way of generating good news, and the fallacy that desert investment generates jobs. In most cases it doesn’t. “
He concluded by saying that the current projects are “Egypt’s frontier of globalisation.”
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