Egypt's question on Tunis: Who will succeed Ben Ali?

Dina Ezzat , Saturday 15 Jan 2011

It remains unclear to Cairo whether Tunisia's toppled president will be succeeded by a "compatible" leader

Tunisia
Protesters demonstrate against Tunisian President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali in Tunis 14 January 2011. (Reuters)

The fleeing of Tunisian President Zein Al-Abedine Ben Ali came as no big surprise to Cairo. After four weeks of popular revolt across Tunisia it was clear to Egyptian leaders, as to those of other Arab capitals, that time was running out for Ben Ali, who has been in power since 1987. Only the rapidity of developments was surprising.

So far, no official reaction has been offered, either from the Egyptian presidency or the Foreign Ministry. Egypt's main question is: Who will succeed Ben Ali?

"The key question now is who will succeed Ben Ali, because that will decide the Egyptian reaction," said an Egyptian official who spoke to Ahram Online on condition of anonymity in the wake of Ben Ali's sudden departure from Tunis Friday evening.

Speaking Saturday afternoon, when it became clear that Ben Ali had been deposed, with portraits lifted from government offices, the same official said "All scenarios are possible; [Ben Ali's successor] could be someone from within the armed forces, but this is the least likely scenario and it could be a technocrat or an opposition figure."

Cairo, official sources say, is determined to keep good relations with the next regime in Tunis. "But of course, we will have to see how the new regime would work with us," said another Egyptian official.

According to sources who spoke to Ahram Online, the key for Cairo is a careful transition of power in Tunis, the call for calm to prevail, and an indication of continued good foreign relations.

Short link: