If news reports about progress in the negotiations between Iran and the world powers on reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal are to be believed, an agreement to reach a deal could be imminent and probably soon.
A new deal will have wide-ranging implications for the Middle East, with many fearing it would not restrict Iran from large-scale uranium enrichment or oblige it to end its ballistic-missile programme or its involvement in regional conflicts.
Signs of a deal to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which granted Iran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear programme, have been coming from world leaders.
The strongest sign emerged at the weekend, when German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that there was “a chance to reach an agreement that will allow sanctions to be lifted.” Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Sunday that Iran might “shortly” agree to a new nuclear deal with the major powers.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian told the US broadcaster CNN that he was “very optimistic” about reaching an agreement in the ongoing talks with the world powers in Vienna to revive the 2015 agreement.
Reports have suggested that the Iranians want to sign a new agreement ahead of Nowruz, the Iranian New Year, on 20 March.
The outline of a new deal appears to be on the table in talks that have been held in Vienna since late November between signatories Britain, China, France, Germany, and Russia, together with Iran.
The US has only participated indirectly in the talks because Iran has declined to talk directly to it, suggesting that direct negotiations would only make sense if the US lifts some of the sanctions against Tehran or releases some Iranian assets frozen in foreign banks.
News of a possible agreement came as negotiators resumed the talks on Monday to restore a deal that was left on life support when former US president Donald Trump pulled out of it in 2018 and reimposed heavy economic sanctions on Tehran, prompting Iran to start ramping up its nuclear activities.
Under the terms of the JCPOA, Iran agreed to dismantle much of its nuclear programme and open its facilities to more extensive international inspections in exchange for billions of dollars’ worth of sanctions relief.
Under Trump, the US added new wide-ranging sanctions on Iran, and Tehran responded by increasing the purity and amounts of uranium it enriches and stockpiles in breach of the JCPOA agreement.
Iran has long insisted that its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes. But the country’s steps away from its obligations under the 2015 agreement have alarmed its regional rivals Israel and the world powers.
Tehran has started enriching uranium to up to 60 per cent purity, a short technical step away from the 90 per cent purity needed to make an atomic bomb, and it has been spinning far more advanced centrifuges than those permitted under the JCPOA deal.
In 2021, US President Joe Biden said the US would return to the deal if Iran came back into compliance, though 33 Republicans in the US Congress have vowed to thwart any new Iran nuclear agreement if they are not allowed to review and vote on its terms.
A draft agreement between Iran and the world powers reported by Reuters on Thursday said it would involve a phased return to the 2015 nuclear deal, with both sides initially taking interim steps to curb enrichment and lift some sanctions.
Reuters quoted Western diplomats as saying that the draft outline included a series of steps for all parties to take following its final approval, starting with Iran suspending enrichment of uranium above five per cent.
The first phase would include the unfreezing of some $7 billion in Iranian funds stuck in South Korean banks under US sanctions, as well as the release of Western prisoners held in Iran.
Later, Iran will return to core nuclear limits like a 3.67 per cent cap on enrichment purity, and sanctions will begin to be relieved, beginning with those against the Islamic Republic’s oil sector, rather than lifting them outright.
While the time between the initiation of the deal and when the sanctions are lifted has yet to be decided, it is estimated to be between one and three months.
The renewal of the sanctions waivers every few months, as was done with the 2015 deal, could be a precondition, contrasting with Iran’s initial insistence that Washington lift the sanctions first, Reuters said, quoting Western diplomats.
Spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry Saeed Khatibzadeh denied the report’s validity and reiterated Tehran’s position that there will be no bilateral agreement.
“Misinformation disguised as reporting is dangerous. The final deal to let the US return to the JCPOA will be far from the unsourced spin making the rounds,” he tweeted.
Iran has sought a guarantee that the US will not be able to withdraw unilaterally from the agreement again, which would require an act of Congress.
It is also demanding that the US halt the pressure on companies not to trade or invest in Iran. One of Iran’s key conditions is that the US remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from its blacklist of foreign terrorist organisations.
Iranian lawmakers have urged Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to obtain guarantees from the US and three European countries that they will not exit from the nuclear deal being renegotiated in Vienna.
In a letter to Raisi, the lawmakers said that the US and the European parties to the nuclear deal, namely Britain, France, and Germany, should also guarantee that they will not trigger the “snapback mechanism” under which sanctions on Iran would be immediately reinstated if it violates nuclear compliance.
Though Trump’s decision to withdraw from the 2015 agreement was widely seen as a mistake, the question now is if it is still possible to stop Iran from getting a nuclear-weapons capability by returning to the deal.
This question particularly matters in the Middle East, where concerns are running high that a bad deal with Iran might not stop its path to a nuclear bomb.
Israel and many Arab countries have opposed a US return to the terms of the 2015 deal or to a similar accord, fearing that Iran has already made “great strides” in building up its enrichment capacity.
They also argue that any new deal should address Tehran’s ballistic-missiles programme and regional activities.
Israel sent a delegation to Vienna to make its voice heard, while Bennett said that Tel Aviv would not be bound by any nuclear deal with Iran and would continue to consider itself free to act “with no constraints” against Tehran if necessary.
The impacts of a new deal will be clearer when the sanctions are lifted and Iran feels emboldened and starts to generate more revenue that it can use to pursue its regional aspirations, including boosting its nuclear power programme.
Disentangling Iran’s nuclear programme, as is expected to happen with the new deal, from the primacy it has been trying to establish in the region will help Tehran’s efforts to further entrench itself through its ballistic-missiles programme, drones, and proxies in the region.
This could have significant ripple effects across the Middle East and complicate efforts to restrain Iran’s ambitions. It is already fuelling conflicts and an arms race in the Middle East and pushing regional powerhouses to work on new strategies to confront Iran on different levels.
Last month, US intelligence disclosed to CNN that Saudi Arabia, which has also initiated an ambitious nuclear programme with plans to construct two large reactors to generate nuclear power, is now actively manufacturing its own ballistic missiles with the help of China.
The world’s eyes will now be focused on what kind of a deal Iran has managed to snatch from the US and the world powers and whether this will be enough to stifle its ambitions or whether it will bolster its power in the region.
*A version of this article appears in print in the 24 February, 2022 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly.
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