Even though the conflict that broke out last week between Iran and Israel is a game-changer for the region and has immediate implications, Egypt needs to think carefully about how it will affect its strategy in the short, medium, and long term.
There is little doubt that the short-term economic repercussions will be apparent and painful. They will worsen Egypt’s economy by boosting energy costs, closing major trade routes, damaging tourism, and putting more strain on the national budget.
But Egypt has a lot more challenges to cope with than just short-term economic ones. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it plain that Israel’s current actions against Iran are not simply aimed to get rid of immediate threats; they are also meant to transform the Middle East’s geopolitical situation in a major way.
This planned change is supposed to make Israel stronger, give it more influence, and push other regional powers to the margins. One important part of this approach is to make the Palestinian issue less important by making it less likely that a viable Palestinian state will be formed. Taking advantage of the disarray in the region will help Israel reach its political and territorial aims.
These kinds of moves could make things worse for Egypt’s diplomacy and security by making the Arab world more unstable, which would have complicated implications for Egypt. Egypt will face an unparalleled geopolitical challenge in the coming few decades in a region where Israel is the dominant power, and there are fewer checks and balances. Things used to be different.
In order to defend its sovereignty and authority in the region, Egypt needs to be strong and united within its own borders. It also needs to be careful about how it interacts with other regional players. It should not become overly dependent on outside forces or too isolated. It needs to make substantial improvements to its own ability to meet this long-term challenge.
Egypt should quickly improve its infrastructure, including transportation networks, energy systems, water resources management, and digital connectivity. These kinds of improvements will make the economy work better and be better able to absorb shocks in the future. It is also important to stabilise and revitalise the economy by making fundamental changes, encouraging innovation, bringing in foreign direct investment, diversifying economic sectors, and supporting businesses that are strong and sustainable.
Another important goal should be to update the military by giving it new technologies, better intelligence-gathering tools, stronger cyber-defence systems, and better defence systems in general. This military modernisation should include greater training, better weapons, and making strategic connections. This transformation needs to happen swiftly, even if it means taking smart risks, borrowing money, or coping with short-term financial concerns. Time is of the essence; putting off these kinds of investments could leave Egypt more vulnerable, which would undermine its strategic independence and long-term security.
Egypt has to work to make its society more united by strengthening its national identity, promoting economic growth that benefits everyone, and making sure that all areas and groups do well. During times of regional upheaval, social solidarity is needed to fight off outside pressures and maintain things steadily inside the country.
In order to achieve these objectives, it is essential to implement modifications to educational, healthcare, and social welfare initiatives. This will help people in their everyday lives and make the country stronger.
To attain the best results, Egypt needs to be actively involved in diplomacy at home and abroad. Strengthening ties with significant regional nations, using diplomacy to settle disputes, and pushing for fair and peaceful solutions to regional challenges on international platforms will be vital. Egypt should focus on multilateralism in its diplomatic efforts.
The choices made today – investing in economic robustness, military preparedness, societal cohesion, diplomatic engagement, and cultural influence – will define Egypt’s role and security within an increasingly complex and rapidly evolving Middle Eastern geopolitical order.
Amidst this challenging landscape there also lies a significant opportunity, or silver lining, for Egypt to emerge stronger and more influential. The need to respond decisively to external pressures can drive transformative internal reforms, fostering unprecedented national unity, technological advancement, and economic revitalisation.
This critical juncture can galvanise Egypt to reclaim and enhance its role as a leading regional power, positioning itself as a pillar of stability, innovation, and diplomatic influence for decades to come.
The writer is a senior adviser to the Grand Mufti of Egypt.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 19 June, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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