In the first six months of his second term, US President Donald Trump has followed a rapidly fluctuating approach to US-China relations, swinging between draconian tariffs and political escalation, on the one hand, to pragmatic compromise, on the other.
If the outward forms of the Trump Administration’s policy towards Beijing have reflected his trademark “deal-maker” style, in substance it has been a response to domestic economic pressures and global challenges, necessitating a balance between aggressive posturing and market stability.
The volatility of this dual-track approach raises questions regarding its sustainability, while the more recent apparent shift towards pragmatism suggests the possibility of a new formula for Washington’s relationship with Beijing, unless, of course, the shift is merely tactical and short-lived.
The trajectory of US-Chinese relations since Trump took office has been nothing short of dramatic. Beginning in February this year, he embarked on an unprecedentedly escalatory policy, imposing sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods. By April, these had peaked at 145 per cent. To Trump’s surprise, China responded in kind, raising its own tariffs to 125 per cent and banning the export of rare earth minerals to US entities.
The forcefulness of the Chinese response, combined with mounting pressures from US manufacturers and broader domestic economic strains, compelled the White House to de-escalate. In May and June, the two sides signed interim agreements that substantially reduced tariffs — US tariffs on Chinese goods dropped to 30 per cent, while China’s fell to 10 per cent — and launched talks aimed at establishing a long-term framework.
The thaw — if only temporary — revealed Trump’s recognition of the limits of escalation and the need to temper his hardline protectionism with a degree of flexibility.
Another indication of the Republican Administration’s pragmatic turn came from the tech sector. After initially banning the export of Nvidia’s H20 microchips to China, Washington reversed course, allowing sales to resume and arguing that this would preserve US corporate dominance while discouraging China from developing independent alternatives.
This was not an isolated shift, but rather part of a broader understanding with Beijing. It was simultaneously a response to lobbying from US tech firms, which viewed the restrictions as harmful to their long-term interests. Nevertheless, the debate in Washington continues over the national security implications of the lifting of the ban on the export of these microchips to China because of their dual use in civilian and military applications.
The June 2025 agreement to accelerate Chinese exports of rare earth minerals to the US was another sign of US-Chinese rapprochement. The culmination of intensive negotiations in Geneva and London, the deal gave a strategic boost to US firms in the energy, defence, and tech sectors, while helping to ease tensions surrounding the trade war. This achievement was accompanied by an equally significant political move: the easing of restrictions on Chinese students entering US universities.
Washington had introduced strict admissions restrictions on such students in May, citing security concerns. The reversal reflects the growing acknowledgment of Chinese students’ contributions to the academic and scientific research economy in the US. Nevertheless, questions continue to hover around its implementation.
The end of the first half of 2025 also brought a diplomatic thaw between Washington and Beijing. Of particular importance was the lengthy telephone call between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping in June, resulting in mutual invitations for official visits and an agreement to launch a new round of bilateral talks. Treasury and trade officials from both sides also increased their meetings in the search for common ground to re-inject a degree of stability in this relationship after months of high tension.
Still, the apparent reset faces both criticism and scepticism. In the US, some Congresspersons worry that easing tech restrictions on China could erode the US’s strategic edge and furnish China with tools to strengthen its industrial and military power. Beijing, for its part, is naturally cautious given the combination of Washington’s erratic actions and the lack of mutual trust, which could undermine any agreement if the political winds shift in the US.
Trump’s blend of maximum pressure and pragmatic softening to yield quick deals before stepping back from the brink may seem like a viable tactic in the short term. However, it places the US-China relationship on an unstable footing, one based more on a momentary convergence of interests rather than on a solid strategic understanding. If this approach continues, the relationship may slip into a renewed cycle of escalation, especially if geopolitical considerations in areas such as Taiwan or advanced technology prevail over mutual economic interests.
In the first six months of 2025, Trump attempted to perform a balancing act between safeguarding the US’s global dominance and responding to internal and external pressures. However, in the absence of a long-term vision and an approach more sustainable than short-term ad hoc deal-making, the US-China relationship will continue to oscillate dangerously between fragile calm and brinksmanship.
It is to be hoped that the two sides can build on the current openings to arrive at a more durable foundation for bilateral engagement in an increasingly volatile world.
The writer is specialist researcher in American affairs and assistant editor-in-chief of Al-Siyasa Al-Dawliya.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 7 August, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
Short link: