Cold wars are fought at a psychological level: the belligerents try to divide and undermine the morale of their opponent’s leaderships and political elites. They also have a quasi-religious dimension: one side stands for everything good and virtuous; the other is unmitigated evil.
International relations scholars, from Alfred Mahan and Halford Mackinder to more contemporary thinkers, hold that disputes and conflict are inevitable between land powers, which expand territorially, and sea powers, which expand through maritime dominance. The classic example of the latter was Britain, which has since been supplanted by the US as “ruler of the waves.” Russia and now China exemplify the land powers. Historically, the sea powers tended to prevail. This was the case in the two world wars and then in the Cold War, from which the US emerged as the world’s sole superpower. But the story does not stop there. Russia has since broken the general rule with its invasion of Ukraine, pushing westward now that there is no longer space for expansion to the east.
It now appears that world powers are about to lock horns in a new round of war. Most likely it will be a cold one, since nuclear weapons will hopefully continue to deter a hot war. US President Donald Trump’s attempts to bypass Europe to strike a deal with his friend, Russian President Vladimir Putin, has failed at so much as arranging a meeting between Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky. At one point it seemed Trump was bent on shredding the Western alliance when he precipitated an economic clash with the EU over the US-EU balance of trade in favour of Brussels. More dangerous has been his challenge to NATO which relies almost entirely on Washington. This, however, triggered a European awakening and an allied revival. European powers agreed on measures to cover the American trade deficit and simultaneously vowed to raise defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP. Soon afterwards, the leaders of France, Britain, Germany, Italy and Ukraine, along with the heads of the European Commission and NATO, flew to Washington to pledge allegiance to Trump, seated behind his desk in the Oval Office.
That was last month. This month was marked by the eightieth anniversary of World War II, with celebrations commemorating the defeat of Nazi Germany in European capitals and Moscow, in particular, and the defeat of imperial Japan in Asia. The European and Asian ceremonies evoke the last events that unified the two continents in the struggle against the Axis powers, Germany and Japan. That unity dissolved abruptly after the end of the war, which in Asia was resolved by the US with the atomic bombs it dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, forcing Japan’s surrender while simultaneously preventing the Soviet Union from joining the victory march into Tokyo.
The grand celebration, hosted by the Communist Party leadership in the People’s Republic of China, is meant to underscore China’s role in defeating Japan. Nationalist China had since retreated to the tiny island of Taiwan, which has become a focal point of the new Cold War.
More than military power was on display this time. China, the rising superpower, has managed global tensions in such a way as to shift the poles from East and West to North and South. This began in the Chinese manner: on economic foundations. The initial thrust was through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has extended to the outskirts of Europe and the US while stimulating a revival of Afro-Asian unity and then extending into South America with the additions of Brazil, Venezuela, and Bolivia. Other vehicles are BRICS – expanding from China, Russia and India to include South Africa and Brazil and, then more recently, to Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia – as well as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Not coincidentally, the SCO held its summit on the eve of the Chinese military parade in Beijing.
Whereas BRICS aims to restructure a global economic order dominated by the dollar and end economic, as well as political and military, hegemony, the SCO seeks to tip the scales of the global power balance. This gained momentum after Trump took office in his second term as US president and began to hurl insults – followed by stinging tariffs – left and right. His most recent target was India, whose response was to overcome all its disputes and crises with China so it could turn its back on the US.
The Chinese military parade, which came on the heels of the SCO gathering, showcased more than 10,000 troops and a broad array of highly sophisticated, advanced weaponry. On the reviewing stand, watching the procession of tanks, missiles capable of reaching the US, and assorted land, sea and aerospace drones, stood China’s Xi Jinping, with Russian President Vladimir Putin to his right and North Korean leader President Kim Jong-un to his left. At that moment, while they presumably conspired against the US, a cable arrived from President Trump congratulating them on the 80th anniversary and conveying his warmest regards.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 11 September, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
Short link: