Most analysts know the difference between a battle and a war. The former is a round in a broader confrontation embodying fundamental contradictions between states. The broader confrontation can only conclude decisively when one side succeeds in resolving the contradictions in its favour by achieving the primary objectives set out in its military strategy.
Innumerable opinion pieces and analyses have appeared about the current war between the US and Iran, but I was particularly struck by Harlan Ullman’s article, “Someone please tell America how this ends,” published in The Hill on 27 April 2026. The opening paragraph sums up the issue:
“During the second Iraq War, General David Petraeus famously asked in his book: ‘Tell Me How This Ends.’ No question could be more relevant to Operation Epic Fury and the ill-advised and potentially disastrous undeclared war against Iran. Since the Korean War, no administration other than George H W Bush’s learned the lesson that while the US military was proficient at winning battles, the US was incapable of winning wars. The first Iraq War and operations Desert Shield and Storm were textbook examples of how to respond to armed aggression. And those who criticised the first president Bush for not marching to Baghdad in 1991 found out how catastrophic that would have been when his son, president George W Bush, did precisely that.”
What happened then is well known. While Iran had “drunk the poisoned chalice”, accepting the 1988 ceasefire that ended the first Iraq-Iran war, Iraq had not won a true victory. It emerged materially and psychologically exhausted, while its international borders with Iran remained as they stood before the war. These were among the factors that drove Saddam Hussein to invade Kuwait, a campaign that ultimately ended with the liberation of Kuwait while Saddam remained in power. Thus, George Bush Sr. had won the battle but lost the war because Saddam still ruled in Baghdad and instability persisted after his defeat in “The Mother of All Battles”. A little over a decade later, George Bush Jr. launched the war to overthrow Saddam. However, his obsession with building a “New Middle East” drew him into a major, multi-phased conflict that ultimately ended with the US’ complete withdrawal from Iraq. Achieving tactical objectives in battle does not necessarily lead to winning a war or attaining the strategic goals needed to resolve a conflict definitively.
Since World War II, the US has won battles but ultimately lost all its wars. In 1950, US forces under the command of General MacArthur – the celebrated hero of the Pacific front in WWII – intervened in Korea to rid it of communism, pushing China to intervene. After several ruinous years, Korea ended up permanently divided between north and south, with the former retaining its communist orientation. Today, the armistice line separating the two halves of the Korean peninsula testifies to a long-standing ceasefire; the war has never truly ended.
Vietnam tells a similar story. Although the United States devastated both North and South Vietnam in numerous battles, it ultimately lost the war. As North Vietnam managed to liberate the South, beleaguered US troops were airlifted off the roof of the US Embassy in Saigon.
The US has waged many battles since President Trump came to power for a second term. At the end of the 12-day war that the US and Israel launched on Iran in June 2025, he declared that they had won the war, having destroyed the Iranian nuclear programme and buried its components beneath the rubble. Despite accomplishing that strategic wartime objective, the US and Israel embarked on another war against Iran on 28 February 2026 – in order to eliminate the destroyed nuclear programme and seize the uranium buried under the rubble. Prior to this, the Trump administration kicked off the year with the storming of the Venezuelan capital, Caracas, and the abduction of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. Trump believed he could replicate that blitz invasion in his wars in the Middle East.
The US-Israeli war on Iran led, first, to the abandonment of Trump’s peace initiative for Gaza, leaving Israel free to expand deeper into the West Bank and Lebanon, while the situation in Gaza remained largely unchanged despite the ceasefire. The war immediately triggered Iranian attacks on the Arab Gulf states. Only a year ago, the relationship between these states and the US had reached unprecedented levels of economic and technological cooperation, a development symbolised by Trump’s visit to the Gulf at the time. Yet, today, not only is he powerless to repel Iranian attacks against those “friends” of America, which had not participated in the war, he is also engaging in peace efforts behind their backs.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 14 May, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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