Polls on almost all levels show that US President Donald Trump is suffering from deteriorating approval ratings. But by depending on the simple-mindedness or real concerns of his supporters, the US president is nevertheless still insisting on carrying out what his critics describe as hazardous policies and exhibiting stubborn attitudes.
Trump is being humiliated by the polls on almost all fronts. Poll after poll shows that his approval ratings are declining because of his policies. Whether on the domestic American level, or on the international level, and whether on the economic level, or on the political/strategic/military level — especially with his mishandling of the war against Iran — the polls are hitting Trump with a “brutal reality check”, as the US Daily Beast has described it.
The most pressing issue at the moment is probably Trump’s handling of the war against Iran and its effect on US energy prices, together with their ripple effect on the American economy as the rising cost of energy leads to the higher cost of doing business.
The average petrol price in the United States, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), is more than $4.5 per gallon, up from about $3.5 one year ago, because of the war on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
On this issue, the polls show that Trump is not doing well at all. This is a cause of concern for the Republican Party, especially since according to a recent CNN/SPSS poll, 75 per cent of Americans said that the war against Iran had had a negative effect on their financial situations, while only eight per cent said that it had had a positive effect.
For this reason, many polls are linking people’s perceptions of the war against Iran with its effect on the American economy. This is especially true as Americans are increasingly becoming sceptical about the purpose of the war. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, completed on 11 May, shows that two out of three Americans think that Trump did not clearly explain why the US went to war against Iran.
Before examining Trump’s poll numbers or his economic performance, we need to look at consumer confidence indices, which reflect consumer sentiments and the feelings that affect their spending. Such indices are usually based on indicators such as job confidence, investment confidence, and others.
The consumer confidence of average Americans has been declining in recent weeks. For example, a report released on 6 May by Apollo Global Management said that consumer confidence in the US has declined for households making less than $50,000 per year but has increased for households making more than $100,000 per year. This is because the former are more worried about rising petrol prices, grocery prices, and job prospects, while the latter are optimistic about rising stock prices.
Based on the declining consumer confidence index in the US, we can further understand the polls on the Iran war and its effect on the American economy. For example, according to a CNN/SPSS poll in early May, 70 per cent of Americans believe that the economy is doing poorly, while 23 per cent think that it is doing well. Seven in 10 American believe that an economic recession will occur by next year.
According to this poll, 77 per cent of Americans, including most Republicans, said that Trump’s policies have increased their cost of living. According to the same poll, 75 per cent of Americans said that the war against Iran had had a negative effect on their financial situation, while only eight per cent said that it had had a positive effect.
Some 65 per cent of Americans said that Trump’s tariffs had had a negative effect on their financial situation, while 16 per cent said that they had had a positive effect. Some 41 per cent of Americans said that Trump’s new tax laws had had a negative effect on their financial situation, while 25 per cent said that they had had a positive effect.
Perhaps most importantly for the Republican Party, more than 55 per cent of Americans said that the economy would be the top issue that would decide how they would vote in the upcoming midterm elections in November.
Furthermore, according to a poll by Marist, completed in early May, 60 per cent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the war (up from 54 per cent in March), 61 per cent (including 25 per cent of Republicans) say that the American military action against Iran has done more harm than good, and 61 per cent of Americans disapprove of how Trump is handling the economy, compared to 58 per cent in March.
Some 63 per cent of Americans blame Trump for the increase in fuel prices and its negative reflections on the economy. This includes 89 per cent of Democrats, 32 per cent of Republicans, and 63 per cent of independents. But 37 per cent put little or no blame for the increased price of petrol on Trump.
Similarly, a recent Economist/YouGov poll conducted on 1-4 May tested Trump’s net approval among independents. These are American voters who cast their votes based on a candidate’s stance on a certain issue, not party loyalty, which means that they sometimes vote for a Democratic candidate and sometimes for a Republican candidate. This poll said that Trump’s net approval among independents was at -38, with only 25 per cent approving and 63 per cent disapproving. This was an 18-point drop from May 2025, and it followed a year that saw a low of -47 in November 2025, before a brief rebound early in 2026.
According to a Financial Times/Focaldata poll on 10 May, American voters cited inflation and cost-of-living issues as the most important concerns heading into the midterm elections, and about 58 per cent said that they were “very” or “somewhat” dissatisfied with Trump’s handling of inflation and the cost-of-living crisis.
Assessments of jobs and the overall economy were also negative, as more than half of respondents said they were not satisfied with Trump’s handling of economic policy. Fifty-five per cent said that Trump’s tariff policies had had a negative impact on the economy, while only about a quarter of respondents said that his trade policies had helped it.
Amidst these declining approval rates, Trump tried to sugarcoat the polls but ended up having the opposite effect. On 9 May, he posted an entry on Truth Social saying “very important: This is where our nation stands!!!” followed by a reposting of a news article saying that according to a Napolitan News survey, 53 per cent of American voters say that preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon is more important than ending the conflict, and 60 per cent said that preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon also takes priority over stabilising energy prices. Napolitan News is a US polling and political-news organisation associated with the Napolitan Institute.
There were two problems with this, however. First, the poll was old, from 10 April, a month before it was posted on Truth Social. Second, and more importantly, Trump ignored other results from this very same poll, which said that only 39 per cent of voters were in favour of the war, compared to 54 per cent who opposed it.
Nevertheless, Trump has been doubling down on his policies regardless of their economic effects. Speaking at the White House before departing for China earlier this month, Trump was asked to what extent “Americans’ financial situations” were motivating him to make a deal with Iran.
“Not even a little bit,” Trump replied. “The only thing that matters when I’m talking about Iran [is that] they can’t have a nuclear weapon. I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation.” Then he added that “every American understands.”
Die-hard Trump supporters in the Bible Belt states say that they do not mind the high petrol prices if the war is going to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. But no one in Washington has been very clear on how the American war against Iran is going to change Iran’s stance on the acquisition of such weapons.
INTERNATIONAL POLLS: Trump is not only suffering in polls conducted in the US. He is also suffering in polls conducted worldwide.
The Alliance of Democracies Foundation based in Denmark conducted a survey asking respondents which country poses the greatest threat to the world. For the second year running, the US, under Trump’s presidency, was named in response after Russia and Israel. In the same survey, the poll said that the perception of democracy in the US had declined to -16 per cent, down from +22 per cent two years ago, placing it behind Russia at -11 per cent and China at plus seven per cent. The survey did not provide a reason for the positive perception of China.
Global economic perceptions are suffering under Trump’s policies. Again, it is useful to look at global consumer confidence before discussing Trump’s poll numbers. One example is a report by Ipsos, a global market research corporation headquartered in Paris. This released its consumer confidence index in April 2026, which measures consumer confidence on an international level. It measured 30 countries, showing that 20 had showed a decline in consumer confidence, the second-biggest decline ever and only behind that of April 2020 after the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The biggest drop in consumer confidence was in the Asia-Pacific region, which is largely dependent on oil and gas from the Middle East, where five of the six largest declines came from Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea, Japan, and Australia. Consumer sentiment also fell sharply in Europe, as nine countries showed a significant decline, namely Italy, Ireland, Belgium, Spain, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Great Britain, and Poland. The largest gainer in consumer confidence, according to the report, was Colombia.
Another global market research corporation, Deloitte, which is headquartered in London, released its Deloitte Consumer Tracker, which indicated a sharp decline in consumer confidence in the UK during the first quarter of 2026. This was the largest drop since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and it was caused by an increase in the prices of consumer essentials.
Consumers in the UK are spending more on transportation due to the rise in fuel prices, which is forcing them to spend less on other essential items. 29 per cent of consumers in the UK say that they are only spending on essentials, up from a quarter in the fourth quarter of last year. More dangerously, consumers in the UK are starting to use up their savings and to use their credit cards more to maintain their living standards, and there is an expectation that this trend is going to continue.
Furthermore, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which brings together the world’s most advanced economies, has developed the OECD Consumer Barometer, and this shows a sharp decline in consumer confidence among OECD members compared to the previous few months.
These declining perceptions are a reflection of the global dissatisfaction with Trump’s tariff policies and the war on Iran.
Many commentators agree that the Republicans are likely to lose the upcoming midterm elections in the US in November because of Trump’s unpopularity. They are understandably worried. But does Trump care? Trump is in his second presidential term, and he is not seeking to win a third, so he will not care about running in any further presidential elections. However, given his stubborn personality and his refusal to admit mistakes, he is likely to double down on his eccentric behaviour.
A recent article in the UK Guardian newspaper by journalist Arwa Mahdawy argued that Trump is not the kind of politician who would be ashamed by low approval ratings. Unlike former US president Richard Nixon, who resigned in August 1974 as a result of the Watergate affair, Trump might double down on his controversial policies and become more vengeful against those who oppose him.
To be sure, this kind of behaviour is not unique to Trump alone. Former US president George W Bush acted similarly during his second term in office (2005-2009) when he claimed that his invasion of Iraq was a success. He continued to rely on the approximately 30 per cent of the population who still supported him despite his failed wars and poor management of the economy at the time.
Trump, too, continues to rely on the approximately 30 per cent of Americans who still support him and think that he is doing a good job. (The districts that continued to support Bush in the early 2000s are the same as those that continue to support Trump today). But Trump has taken this stubbornness to a new level, as he continues to post misleading posts on his Truth Social platform and to blame “fake news” for America’s problems. His supporters continue to buy his merchandise whether he is in or out of office. They might also endorse his son, Donald Trump Jr, for the next presidential elections in 2028 to keep the Trump family in the White House.
Why do the Republicans continue to support Trump despite his potentially negative effect on the party’s performance in the upcoming midterm elections? The answer is that they fear his wrath: he is popular among the Republican base and in the Bible Belt, and he has the power to convince Republican voters to endorse or not endorse Republican candidates. One Republican member of Congress who spoke on condition of anonymity said that “members of Congress right now are just trying to represent their districts and do the best they can for their constituents… Being at odds with the president right now, [prompting] negative comments, all those different things would have an impact.”
Trump, like former US presidents Ronald Reagan and George W Bush before him, is depending on the lack of sophistication and the real and justifiable fears of certain American voters. But his policies are harmful to the United States and the world, and he is being empowered by supporters who think that he can provide the solutions to their problems.
As the veteran American journalist H L Mencken wrote in The Chicago Tribune in 1926, “no one in this world… has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.”
It seems that Trump is continuing to apply this principle 100 years later.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 28 May, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly.
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