Egypt’s agricultural sector is facing mounting risks linked to water scarcity, the depletion of cultivable land, and growing geopolitical instability affecting global food-supply chains, warns a report issued by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
The situation is especially pressing given that over half of Egypt’s domestic wheat consumption is met through imports at a time when its rapidly expanding population is projected to continue rising until 2050.
Agriculture, facing diminishing arable land despite extensive state-led reclamation projects, remains strategically vital, contributing around 14 per cent of GDP and employing roughly one-fifth of the workforce in Egypt.
The OECD report, entitled “Policies for the Future of Farming and Food in Egypt” and issued in May, forms part of its wider “Agriculture and Food Policy Reviews” series that has also issued similar reports for countries including Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Japan, South Korea, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, and the US.
In Egypt’s case, the OECD is applying its agricultural policy indicators to the country for the first time, arguing that the challenges facing Egyptian agriculture can no longer be addressed through traditional piecemeal reforms alone that have created an agricultural and food model that is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.
The report frames Egypt’s agricultural dilemma as part of a broader “food system” problem that involves subsidy structures, state institutions, trade vulnerabilities, environmental pressures, and demographic growth, all of which feed into one another.
For decades, the state has sought to secure food supplies through extensive interventions such as production targets for strategic crops, guaranteed procurement prices, food subsidies, and large-scale land-reclamation projects intended to expand cultivation.
This model, the OECD report argues, is now facing structural limits imposed by population growth, economic costs, and environmental constraints.
Egypt’s population, estimated at around 116.5 million in 2024, is projected to reach approximately 160 million by 2050. Agricultural productivity has risen, but not quickly enough to match burgeoning demand.
The result is that Egypt remains among the world’s largest wheat importers, relying heavily on external suppliers to satisfy domestic consumption.
Wheat imports alone account for nearly half of total national consumption, with dependence concentrated particularly on Russia and Ukraine. Such concentration, the report notes, creates strategic vulnerabilities, especially at times of geopolitical disruption.
Recent regional tensions, including disruptions linked to the wider US-Iran confrontation and instability affecting shipping and supply routes, have underscored the fragility of food-import-dependent economies.
For Egypt, the issue is not only one of increasing domestic productivity, but also of diversifying import partners and strengthening the resilience of supply chains.
One of the report’s central criticisms concerns Egypt’s long-standing policy emphasis on achieving self-sufficiency in “strategic” crops such as wheat, maize, and sugar. The state, through agencies such as the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), purchases significant quantities of domestically produced wheat, while maintaining protective trade measures and guaranteed prices intended to encourage cultivation.
The OECD argues that such interventions can create rigidity within the agricultural sector by discouraging farmers from adapting to changing environmental realities and market conditions. As an alternative, it proposes that agricultural policies should shift away from prioritising “food self-sufficiency” towards the broader notion of “food security”.
Given the limitations on land and water in Egypt, the report argues that maximising the domestic production of staple crops may prove both environmentally unsustainable and economically inefficient.
Government policy should instead focus on resilience, diversified supply sources, nutritional outcomes, and sustainable resource management, it says.
The report also highlights what it describes as Egypt’s “double burden of malnutrition”. While a significant segment of the population continues to experience food insecurity or undernourishment, Egypt also has some of the world’s highest rates of obesity and weight-related illnesses.
Healthy diets remain financially inaccessible to many households, while subsidised calorie-dense staples such as bread, sugar, rice, and cooking oil remain comparatively cheap and widely available. According to the OECD, this imbalance carries long-term health, education, and productivity costs.
It advocates the gradual reform of Egypt’s subsidy system. Rather than removing subsidies on food abruptly, it recommends that more targeted support be directed towards vulnerable households.
This could be implemented through expanded cash-transfer mechanisms and improved beneficiary identification systems. The report also calls for greater emphasis to be given to nutrition-oriented policies, including school meal programmes and broader dietary diversification.
Environmental constraints constitute another major focus of the report.
Egyptian agriculture remains overwhelmingly dependent on Nile irrigation while simultaneously facing intensifying pressures from water scarcity, soil salinity, fertiliser overuse, and pollution.
While the OECD acknowledges recent state investments in irrigation modernisation and desert reclamation projects, it argues that technological improvements alone will not resolve the problem.
It warns that efficiency gains can increase overall resource consumption if agricultural expansion continues unchecked. It recommends the adoption of policies aimed at reducing water demand, rationalising fertiliser use, tightening the enforcement of pesticide regulations, and developing more sustainable resource-management mechanisms.
The report points to institutional complexity as another obstacle. Egypt’s agricultural and food sectors involve overlapping ministries, agencies, state-owned enterprises and entities operating simultaneously across the supply chain.
According to the OECD, this fragmented structure weakens policy coordination and reduces overall efficiency.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 28 May, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly.
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