Amid escalating developments in southern Lebanon, an Israeli political and military impasse, and stalled efforts to move to the second phase of the ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel, concerns are mounting over the possibility of renewed war in Gaza.
Within the framework of the agreement announced by US President Donald Trump, the second phase was expected to include the disarmament of Hamas. The latter, however, has refused to comply with that provision, arguing that Israel has failed to honour its commitments regarding the entry of medical and food aid to Gaza and the full implementation of the first phase of the deal.
Against this backdrop, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced a series of escalatory measures, most notably increasing the area under Israeli military control in Gaza from 60 to 70 per cent, a move widely interpreted as signalling an intention to intensify military operations and potentially return to full-scale conflict.
Netanyahu presented the proposal during the latest meeting of Israel’s security cabinet, where ministers discussed expanding ground control over the Gaza Strip. While the idea was reviewed, no final decision was taken.
Informed Israeli media sources have reported that no formal orders have yet been issued to security agencies or the military to implement the plan or to expand Israel’s occupation of additional territory in Gaza.
Under the peace initiative proposed by Trump, Israel retains an area up to what is known as the “Yellow Line” covering roughly 52 per cent of the Gaza Strip. Israel has gradually expanded this area over recent months and weeks, increasing its control to approximately 60 per cent.
The Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported that Netanyahu said during a ceremony marking the anniversary of Israel’s occupation of East Jerusalem that the military currently controls 60 per cent of Gaza and intends to expand that area further.
It noted that this exceeds the territory envisaged under the ceasefire agreement brokered by the United States and implemented in October 2025, under which Israel was expected to control approximately 53 per cent of the enclave.
Haaretz also reported that it had published a field investigation in January documenting the westward movement of the Yellow Line, adding that the expansion has continued in recent months, each time further reducing the already limited living space available to Palestinians in Gaza.
Commenting on the Israeli announcements, Israeli affairs analyst Fouad Al-Lahham told Al-Ahram Weekly that Netanyahu is seeking to satisfy far-right factions led by ministers such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, while also securing the support of their voter base as electoral deadlines approach.
Al-Lahham said that this approach is reflected in the continuation of the military escalation and Palestinian bloodshed. He argued that current indicators suggest that the war on Gaza and the ongoing military campaign are unlikely to end in the near future, as Israeli political decisions remain closely tied to domestic and electoral calculations aimed at strengthening the far right and preserving the stability of the governing coalition.
He said developments on the ground appear to be linked to what he described as an Israeli project aimed at pushing Gaza’s residents towards displacement. While international pressure may have delayed or complicated those plans, he argued that they have not disappeared from Israel’s agenda.
Israel still hopes to compel Gaza’s population to emigrate, he said, explaining its failure to allow aid deliveries on the agreed scale. Under the ceasefire arrangement, 600 aid trucks were expected to enter Gaza daily. Instead, only a few dozen trucks are being allowed in each week rather than each day, as part of a deliberate pressure strategy.
He added that statements by Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz reflect a continued commitment to this approach, noting that Katz has repeatedly spoken about plans concerning the future of Gaza’s population and has shown no indication of abandoning them.
Gaza is one of the most densely populated areas in the world and continuing military operations and widespread evacuation orders have dramatically reduced the space available to civilians. This has intensified the humanitarian crisis in the strip and forced hundreds of thousands of displaced people into overcrowded areas lacking the basic necessities of life.
Al-Lahham said that conditions on the ground in Gaza continue to deteriorate as available living space shrinks due to ongoing military activity and repeated evacuation orders.
He warned that confining hundreds of thousands of people to increasingly limited areas raises questions about the sustainability of life under the current humanitarian conditions.
Growing fears: As the Israeli escalation continues, fears are growing among residents and displaced people across Gaza.
Israeli air strikes have persisted across various parts of the territory while officials speak openly about increasing military control, heightening uncertainty among families already living in severe humanitarian conditions.
At the Unknown Soldier Camp west of Gaza City, camp director Abu Maher said that the recent wave of Israeli attacks, particularly in the Al-Rimal neighbourhood previously regarded as one of the safer areas in Gaza, has led many displaced families to consider the possibility of being forced to move again.
He said families are living under mounting psychological pressure amid fears of a broader military offensive, noting that many displaced people lack the resources necessary to relocate once more or abandon what remains of their possessions.
“Leaving this place has become a constant concern for us,” he said, adding that current conditions are “more difficult than before, and the war is still ongoing”.
Addressing the impact of Israeli statements regarding expanded military control, Abu Maher said displaced residents had hoped to return to eastern areas of Gaza, but those hopes have faded amid talk of further territorial expansion.
“We had hoped to return to the eastern areas. Now that hope has virtually disappeared,” he said, warning that any further expansion could place current displacement zones within direct danger.
The concerns are not limited to Palestinians. In recent days, the United Nations has warned that Israel’s plan to expand its control to 70 per cent of Gaza would further worsen conditions for children already suffering from severe overcrowding in the remaining areas available to civilians.
These concerns prompted the UN children’s agency UNICEF to issue a warning that such a move would intensify the health crisis affecting children in the already devastated Palestinian territory, where shortages of food, clean water and hygiene supplies remain acute.
A UNICEF spokesperson noted that even before the war Gaza was among the most densely populated places in the world. Today, residents are concentrated within the roughly 40 per cent of the territory still accessible to them, sheltering among destroyed buildings, rubble, and accumulating waste.
He said there is virtually no remaining space for waste disposal and that the consequences are now increasingly visible. Children are suffering from respiratory infections, severe diarrhoea, and widespread skin diseases, while infestations of fleas, lice and scabies have become common.
Numerous cases have also been recorded of children, including infants, being bitten by rodents that have entered tents and shelters housing hundreds of thousands of displaced people.
He said the number of children requiring hospital treatment is rising at a time when no hospital in Gaza is operating at full capacity, describing the situation as “catastrophic.”
He added that the overcrowding contributes to the spread of disease, places immense pressure on already strained systems, and inevitably reduces access to services. Should Israel proceed with plans to seize additional land, he warned, access to service points would become even more difficult, particularly for families and children living in hard-to-reach areas.
Violence: Despite the ceasefire agreement remaining formally in effect, Gaza continues to witness daily violence.
According to Gaza’s Health Ministry, more than 900 people have been killed in the territory since the ceasefire was announced. The figures underscore the continuing deterioration of humanitarian conditions in the strip despite the fragile truce and highlight the need for close international monitoring.
Commenting on Palestinian and international concerns over Israeli expansion and territorial control measures, Al-Lahham said such fears are justified.
He argued that Israel is seeking to increase the suffering of the Palestinians in Gaza, particularly in areas where civilians are concentrated. These areas already face the widespread destruction of infrastructure and essential facilities and lack adequate access to clean drinking water, electricity, healthcare, and sufficient food and medical supplies.
According to Al-Lahham, maintaining pressure on the population under such conditions makes daily life increasingly difficult and risks driving the humanitarian crisis to unprecedented levels.
He suggested that these measures can be viewed as part of a broader Israeli policy designed to increase pressure on Gaza’s residents and encourage them to seek alternatives outside their communities, arguing that restrictions on movement and worsening humanitarian conditions serve as tools towards that objective.
On the political front, he said that Netanyahu is determined to demonstrate that the war has not ended without achieving the objectives he announced at its outset and that he remains committed to continuing military operations in pursuit of those goals.
He added that Netanyahu is facing domestic political considerations linked to the future of his government and his relationship with far-right parties in Israel, factors that make him more inclined to maintain a military approach and avoid major concessions.
Al-Lahham said that previous agreements and understandings amounted in his view to temporary pauses imposed by specific political or military circumstances rather than evidence that the war has truly ended.
He described such periods as brief interludes between rounds of escalation and said that the current situation suggests that military operations could continue or even enter new phases unless political or international developments emerge that are capable of imposing a different course of events.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 4 June, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly.
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