Factbox: Egypt's trade deficit widens 54% in Q1 2026 amid fallout from US-Israeli war on Iran

Ahram Online , Sunday 7 Jun 2026

Egypt's trade deficit widened by 53.9 percent year-on-year to $15.48 billion in the first quarter of 2026, driven by a decline in exports and a sharp rise in imports amid the economic fallout from the US-Israeli war on Iran, according to data released by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS).

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The trade deficit also widened by 48.8 percent year-on-year to $4.6 billion in March 2026, up from almost $3.1 billion in March 2025.

The figures reflect a one-month impact of the US-Israeli war on Iran, which broke out at the end of February.

The war caused global inflationary pressures and tighter financial conditions, disrupted supply chains, and raised import costs.

Exported commodities
 

Egypt’s total exports fell by 2.51 percent, or $120 million, year-on-year in March 2026 to $4.64 billion, compared with $4.76 billion in March 2025.

During the first quarter (1Q) of 2026, exports declined by 8.2 percent, or nearly $1.1 billion, to $12.9 billion from almost $14 billion in the corresponding period of 2025.

  • Exports of petroleum products rose by 68.3 percent, or $235 million, to $579 million in March 2026, up from $344 million a year earlier.
  • During 1Q 2026, petroleum product exports increased by 61.5 percent, or $501 million, to $1.31 billion, compared with $814 million in the same period of 2025.
  • Crude oil exports fell to $84 million in March 2026 from $109 million in March 2025, a decline of $25 million.
  • In 1Q 2026, crude oil exports dropped by 9.6 percent, or $25 million, to $234 million, compared with $259 million in the corresponding quarter of 2025.

Egypt's LNG exports fell to zero in March 2026 amid the repercussions of the US-Israeli war on Iran after recording $6 million in March 2025.

However, LNG exports during 1Q 2026 surged by 462.5 percent, or $74 million, to $90 million, up from $16 million in the same period of 2025.

Non-oil exports
 

  • Non-oil exports fell by 7.5 percent, or $324 million, year-on-year to $3.9 billion in March 2026, down from $4.3 billion in March 2025.

Egypt's top non-oil exports in March included fertilizers, food preparations and pastes, and potatoes.

  • During 1Q 2026, non-oil exports declined by 12.5 percent, or $1.6 billion, to $11.2 billion, compared with $12.8 billion in the corresponding quarter of 2025.

Exports are a key source of foreign currency as Egypt aims to reduce its import bill, increase exports by 15–20 percent annually through 2030, and raise the industrial sector’s share of GDP from 14 percent to 20 percent.

During 1Q 2026, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) estimated real GDP growth at around 4.9 percent, down from 5.3 percent in Q4 2025 as the war in the Middle East continues to weigh on several markets, slowing down growth in 2026 after it recovered briefly in 2025.

GDP growth is expected to slow due to tighter monetary policies that will keep prices and demand for goods under control.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund warned that economic output in countries affected by conflict typically drops when war begins. It added that the output continues to decline.

The Fund warned that the war’s impact on Egypt may prove worse than that of most financial crises or severe natural disasters because it may take a toll on the country’s energy sector and on financing, thus stalling Egypt's economic recovery.

Nevertheless, Egypt’s economy has remained resilient, with the CBE deciding to keep its key policy rates unchanged.

The CBE has also continued a tight monetary policy as uncertainty continues and demand remains weak.

Imported commodities
 

Egypt's total imports increased by 17.8 percent, or $1.4 billion, year-on-year in March 2026 to $9.29 billion, compared with $7.88 billion in March 2025.

During the first quarter (1Q) of 2026, imports rose by 18.2 percent, or $4.4 billion, to $28.4 billion, up from nearly $24 billion in the corresponding period of 2025.

  • Imports of petroleum products increased by $164 million to $1.1 billion in March 2026, compared with $977 million in March 2025.
  • However, petroleum product imports during 1Q 2026 fell by nearly 8 percent, or $206 million, to $2.4 billion, down from $2.6 billion in the same quarter of 2025.
  • LNG imports rose by $118 million, or 16.6 percent, to $830 million in March 2026, up from $712 million a year earlier.
  • During 1Q 2026, LNG imports increased by nearly 24 percent, or $448 million, to $2.3 billion, compared with almost $2 billion in the corresponding period of 2025.
  • Crude oil imports climbed by $204 million to $429 million in March 2026, up from $225 million in March 2025.
  • In 1Q 2026, crude oil imports surged by $552 million to $857 million, compared with $305 million in the same period of 2025.

Non-oil imports
 

  • Non-oil imports rose by 15.4 percent, or $919 million, to nearly $7 billion in March 2026, compared with almost $6 billion in March 2025.

The main non-oil imports in March 2026 included raw cotton, industrial raw materials such as iron and steel, corn, organic and inorganic chemicals, and medicines and pharmaceutical preparations.

  • During 1Q 2026, non-oil imports increased by nearly 19 percent, or $3.6 billion, to almost $23 billion, up from $19.2 billion in the corresponding quarter of 2025.

The UAE ranked as Egypt's top export destination during the period, followed by Italy, Switzerland, Saudi Arabia, and the United States.

Meanwhile, China remained Egypt's largest source of imports, followed by Saudi Arabia, the United States, Russia, and the UAE.

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