I hope readers will forgive my insistence on the necessity of grappling with the current historical moment, in which a complex of wars and conflicts has afflicted the Arab region and the broader Middle East.
This moment requires the formation of a bloc of capable, mature and well-grounded nation-states that are not plagued by militias or civil wars and possess a clear-sighted national project with clearly defined milestones for progress. The Arab states that fit this description are the six Arab Gulf states, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria, and they are complemented by the non-Arab Middle Eastern states Turkey and Pakistan.
At the time of writing, the reality on the ground is that Iran continues to target Kuwait, while its proxies – led by the Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq – launch drone attacks against both the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, Israel is still carving out large chunks of Lebanese territory for itself even as a peace process proceeds between Tel Aviv and Beirut.
We have reached a crossroads. There is no ceasefire, no draft agreement, no memorandum of understanding on the horizon, and the situation forebodes a conflagration that could consume everything in its path.
The Arab states on the front lines of the Fourth Gulf War have responded to the challenges with outstanding courage. Amid the turmoil, Saudi Arabia organised the pilgrimage to the Holy Mosques in Mecca and Medina in exemplary fashion, serving millions of faithful Muslims. The six Gulf states defended themselves vigorously against missiles and drones as well as conspiracies orchestrated by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps. The UAE alone successfully dealt with more than 2,800 strikes. These states’ active assertion of their right to self-defence affirmed both their credibility and their capability.
Yet this is not enough. Amid the conflagration, it is crucial to look back to the aftermath of the French Revolution, the Napoleonic Wars and Napoleon’s defeat. Four conservative powers – Russia, Austria, Prussia, and Britain –later joined by France, led a process that managed to preserve the balance of power in Europe for nearly a century. Together, those five powers formed what became known as the Concert of Europe or the Congress of Vienna. Their aim was to manage change and prevent the outbreak of further revolutions and wars.
An Arab grouping of this sort could defend the processes of change that emerged in response to upheaval precipitated by the so-called Arab Spring. That period gave rise to three currents: the anarchic drive, aimed at overthrowing existing orders without offering a viable alternative; the Islamist current parading beneath the banner of the Muslim Brotherhood and its affiliated extremist movements; and, finally, the reformist current grounded in the nation-state and projects of national growth and progress.
Another reason the European model offers guidance is that it witnessed two revolutions that unfolded simultaneously at the end of the 18th century and throughout the 19th: the French Revolution and the Industrial Revolution. The first was deliberately bent on destroying the political structures and systems of European states through the dissemination of its ideals of liberty, fraternity and equality. The second would become the force that transformed Europe – and subsequently the world – economically, socially, and ultimately politically. Together, those two revolutions shaped the contemporary world as we know it. Accordingly, the Arab reform states must defend their right to development, national advancement, and technological progress.
History does not repeat itself. Events that resemble one another are not necessarily identical. Still, it is a moral obligation to learn the lessons of history. The current generation of reform-oriented Arab nation-states faces a series of challenges. The first is to preserve the progress they have already achieved through major socioeconomic transformation projects they have set in motion.
The second is to determine how to deal with the US, which has entered the stage that Arthur Schlesinger termed The Imperial Presidency, whose more difficult characteristics have been thrown into relief by President Trump. The third challenge is how to deal with the Palestinians, as long as we genuinely seek a Palestinian state in which arms and authority are unified in the state. The fourth is how to address not only the Palestinian question but also what has historically been referred to in the Western world as the Jewish Question.
The path forward cannot just consist of denouncing events as they unfold, invoking international and humanitarian law, and condemning aggressors, tyrants, and oppressors. The reformist states must work together to create a viable and successful regional order through the pursuit of a comprehensive strategy for overcoming the challenges. Such an undertaking demands extensive thought and close collaboration, which, in turn, means avoiding past mistakes rooted in rivalry, arrogance or submission to the dictates of social media networks. The tasks ahead require institutional work of the sort able to accurately assess problems and present viable options – which are by no means few.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 11 June, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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