“Pandemics are no longer rare events but a constant global threat” said a report by the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (GPMB), an independent health monitoring body, which warned in October 2024 that the world remains “highly vulnerable to infectious disease outbreaks”.
Today, two years later, the board is reiterating its concerns, noting that diseases such as Ebola and hantavirus are becoming more frequent and more destructive.
Quoting a GPMB report, the UK newspaper The Guardian recently reported that the world is “becoming less resilient” to infectious disease outbreaks. The warning comes amid growing concern over Ebola outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Uganda.
While health authorities in these countries continue efforts to contain the virus, the GPMB stressed that “pandemic risks are increasing faster than investments in preparedness,” leaving the world “not yet meaningfully safer”.
The report attributes the rising threat to factors including “climate change, armed conflict, geopolitical fragmentation, and commercial self-interest,” all of which undermine collective action to address health crises. Although surveillance systems and pandemic-response mechanisms have improved in recent years, it said that “the world remains acutely vulnerable.”
A separate 2024 GPMB assessment identified several “key threats to global preparedness,” including “declining trust within and between nations, social and economic inequality, intensive farming practices, and increased human-to-animal disease transmission.” It also warned that “cyberattacks, growing biosecurity risks, and the rapid spread of misinformation are heightening the likelihood of future pandemics.”
Other recent reports from international agencies highlight a surge in disease outbreaks worldwide, including renewed Ebola outbreaks and the emergence of new hantavirus strains. These developments follow previous waves of coronavirus infections, SARS, H1N1 influenza, swine flu, monkeypox, chikungunya, Nipah virus, and the Marburg virus, which is one of the world’s deadliest pathogens with mortality rates averaging 50 per cent and reaching as high as 88 per cent.
The re-emergence of such diseases underscores the need for stronger international cooperation and global solidarity. Human health has increasingly become a central component of global security in a shift that was evident when the UN Security Council unanimously declared that the then Ebola outbreak was “a threat to international peace and security” in 2014.
Two days earlier, then US president Barack Obama had warned that Ebola had become not only a regional threat but also a potential global security challenge.
The developments reflected the growing importance of the concept of “global health security”, promoted by the World Health Organisation (WHO) since 2007 in response to the accelerating globalisation of disease transmission.
Today, major threats to international security extend beyond traditional concerns such as political conflicts, terrorism, organised crime, irregular migration, and economic crises. Epidemic diseases have emerged as a critical non-traditional security challenge, requiring governments and international institutions to reassess risk assessments, strengthen preparedness, and develop more adaptive strategies to address increasingly unpredictable global health threats.
Infectious diseases spread in three graduated patterns. First, there are endemics, typically of diseases that are always present in a given geographical area at predictable and relatively stable rates such as the Malaya disease in certain African countries.
Second, there are epidemics, which refer to a sudden surge in the spread of a disease within a country or group of countries within a specific geographical area beyond expected normal rates. This applies to the Ebola outbreak in West African countries during 2014 to 2016, as well as the current outbreak in the DRC. The second wave of the Ebola outbreak has reportedly resulted in an estimated 1,200 cases and more than 250 deaths since late May. The WHO has declared the situation “a public health emergency of international concern.”
Third, there are pandemics, typically of diseases that transcend geographical boundaries to spread across continents, infecting large numbers of people globally. The outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 is a case in point.
THREATS: Infectious diseases are invisible threats endangering human health and state security alike. It can be difficult to track HIV, the Coronavirus, and Ebola, while non-disease threats from a foreign country or group of countries can be more easily defined and monitored, making them easier to combat.
Dealing with sometimes hidden enemies like infectious diseases can be more challenging, which may also help to explain why global preparedness to curb them is often largely inadequate.
The sudden nature of disease outbreaks significantly amplifies their danger. Epidemics and pandemics often emerge with little or no warning, leaving governments and healthcare systems insufficient time to prepare effective containment measures. The resulting human and economic costs can be severe.
Moreover, cross-border health crises cannot be managed by individual states acting alone. Effective responses require international cooperation, including coordinated containment strategies, patient treatment, resource sharing, and equitable access to vaccines and medical supplies.
Infectious diseases are thus among the most prominent transnational threats of the modern era. Unlike traditional security challenges, they are not confined by national borders and can spread rapidly across regions and continents. This reality reflects the broader dynamics of globalisation, in which many of the world’s most pressing challenges have become increasingly interconnected and difficult for any single country to address independently.
As a result, the distinction between domestic and external threats has become increasingly blurred. Just as environmental and climate-related challenges transcend borders, epidemic diseases have emerged as global security concerns that demand collective action and coordinated international responses.
Many factors stand behind the spread of diseases and viruses across the globe. Biological threats are considered among the most dangerous “grey-zone” threats since they transcend borders and go far beyond being merely public health crises.
There is also the danger that some rogue companies may be tempted to develop such agents as biological weapons, producing harmful bacteria and viruses in their labs with the aim of also developing the protocols and vaccines needed to curb them. In a worst-case scenario this nightmare picture could be similar to that of big computer firms that create computer viruses in order to sell anti-virus software.
The fact that some large firms monopolise vaccine production, and that they are mostly located in Western countries such as the United States, Britain, France, Germany, and Australia, underlines such concerns. This does not reflect the logic of conspiracy that is sometimes associated with less-developed countries in the Global South but rather points to a reality reflected in the pattern of new alliances emerging around the world.
These alliances are based on cooperation on the prediction of the emergence of biological viruses, creating a tool for building partnerships among countries and among international companies operating in this field.
Some of the most dangerous viruses spread rapidly, being both highly contagious and not exhibiting symptoms in an infected person for up to several weeks, a period that is long enough for those around him or her also to contract the virus. People who are in contact with patient zero, the first person to be affected by a given virus, can then easily get infected.
This was the case with 70-year-old Dutchman Leo Schilperoord, a passenger on the Hondius cruise ship that set off from Argentina on a trans-Atlantic tour earlier this year, who was infected with a hantavirus. Symptoms of this developed 22 days later, when the virus had already been transmitted to some of his fellow passengers causing fever and acute respiratory problems. Hantavirus is transmitted through direct touch with the urine, faeces, or saliva of infected rodents.
Cross-border labour movements and international migration are another important source of disease transmission. The 2003 outbreak of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) virus infected at least 8,273 people worldwide and claimed 775 lives, with the majority of cases recorded in China, Hong Kong, Canada, Taiwan, Singapore, and the Philippines.
The disease was also transmitted, on a more limited scale, to several countries in the Middle East region, particularly Kuwait and Iran, through migrant labour flows and population movements, although these cases did not result in fatalities.
As a result, many such disease outbreaks are actually “neighbourhood epidemics” like the spread of the Ebola virus following its emergence in 1976, its first major outbreak in West Africa in 2014, and its renewed spread in 2026, all of which have rendered it an emerging threat to the countries of this region.
Disease hotspots have been located in border areas in Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi, though some Arab countries, especially Lebanon, may also face challenges because of links to expatriate communities and people moving from countries witnessing the Ebola outbreak.
A lack of transparency is another reason why diseases can be easily transmitted, and this particularly applies to conflict zones across the Middle East. The collapse of the regimes in Libya, Yemen, and Syria have given way to militant groups and governing authorities that have showed little transparency regarding the number of infected people in the event of disease outbreaks in areas under their control.
They are often not in a position to submit accurate data, and misleading reports submitted to the WHO have further curtailed efforts to curb the spread of infectious diseases.
The unequal dissemination of information among poorer communities and vulnerable groups further contributes to the spread of contagious diseases. Such communities often receive few or no awareness campaigns and may thus lack basic knowledge about preventing the transmission of infectious illnesses.
This was particularly evident during the Covid-19 pandemic, when the WHO classified Libya as one of the high-risk countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, citing the difficulty of reaching certain areas, especially in the country’s south, during the early stages of the outbreak in 2020.
Barriers to healthcare result in patients remaining untreated and cases going undetected, facilitating the continued spread of the virus.
Some countries may also put in place inadequate preventive measures to curb epidemics, a challenge which particularly applies to some African countries. The WHO and the African Union (AU) announced in 2024 that the then monkeypox outbreak in the DRC and other parts of Africa constituted a global health emergency, for example, the highest level of public health alert.
Confirmed cases were reported among both children and adults in more than 12 countries, alongside the emergence and spread of a new strain of the virus. Subsequently, the WHO declared that monkeypox was no longer a global health emergency in September 2025, following a sustained decline in the number of cases in the DRC and other affected countries.
Any underestimate of an infectious disease may also help it spread more rapidly. Fortunately, the WHO has confirmed that the hantavirus that is the cause of current concern is classified as a low-risk virus in terms of epidemiological spread, owing to its limited human-to-human transmission.
Most reported cases are associated with direct exposure to rodents or environments contaminated by their excreta. Consequently, the current situation does not indicate a significant risk of a global outbreak or pandemic, particularly given the virus’ relatively long incubation period.
In January this year, the WHO also stated that the likelihood of the Nipah virus spreading beyond India remains low. This virus is primarily transmitted through infected bats or contaminated fruit, while human-to-human transmission is relatively uncommon and generally occurs only through close and prolonged contact with infected individuals.
Following the reporting of two cases in India, the WHO emphasised that it did not recommend any travel or trade restrictions, reflecting its assessment of the limited risk of international spread.
STRATEGIES: Today, as global viral threats increase, curbing epidemic diseases requires integrated strategies to be better prepared for any possible outbreaks.
The main priority is strengthening national health systems and epidemic surveillance to ensure preparedness in crisis management, emergency response, and rapid medical interventions, particularly amid recurring and emerging viral outbreaks.
Public health experts caution that future pandemics may stem not only from novel viruses but also from known pathogens that re-emerge with higher transmissibility, driven by climate change, global travel, and intensified human-animal contact.
In a message marking the International Day for Epidemic Preparedness in December 2024, UN Secretary General António Guterres called on all countries to work collectively to build a healthier and safer world. He warned that despite lessons learned from the Covid-19 pandemic, the world remains insufficiently prepared for the next global health crisis, particularly due to persistent inequalities in access to healthcare.
He emphasised that the recent emergence of both new and re-emerging viruses highlights ongoing and unpredictable global health threats, underscoring the need for stronger health systems and increased investment in surveillance, early detection, and rapid response capacities.
The UN General Assembly encourages cooperation among governments, UN agencies, regional and international organisations, the private sector, civil society, academic institutions, and individuals to observe the annual International Day for Epidemic Preparedness.
This would raise awareness of the importance of epidemic prevention, preparedness, and partnership, in line with national priorities and contexts, it says.
Guterres’ appeal for global cooperation also came at a critical time, as preventing and mitigating future pandemics requires sustained collaboration between governments and the WHO, as well as the adoption of a “one health” approach that integrates human, animal, and environmental health sectors.
Egypt participated at the One Health Summit held in Lyon, France, from 5 to 7 April this year, where Minister of Health and Population Khaled Abdel-Ghaffar presented Egypt’s integrated strategic vision linking human health, environmental protection, and animal health.
The summit served as a major international platform bringing together government representatives, international organisations, scientists, civil-society representatives, and private-sector actors to accelerate the global implementation of the one health approach, strengthen health systems, enhance international cooperation, and develop integrated solutions to shared health risks.
Finally, improving environmental conditions in parts of Africa and Asia remains essential, as these regions often serve as high-risk environments for the spread of epidemic diseases. Particular attention is needed in border areas, refugee camps, and informal settlements, where outbreaks can spread rapidly, as demonstrated during the Covid-19 pandemic.
This also highlights the importance of strengthening the role of humanitarian and medical organisations, among them the international medical group Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), in ensuring timely and effective interventions to contain outbreaks and treat infections.
The writer is head of the Arab and Regional Studies Department at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 11 June, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly.
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