What's next for France's presidential race after Le Pen legal gamble?

AFP , Wednesday 8 Jul 2026

The dominant figure on France's far right, Marine Le Pen, is pressing ahead with a presidential bid despite an embezzlement conviction, in a gamble that could test her appeal among undecided voters.

President of the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) parliamentary group Marine Le Pen poses prior to an interview on the evening news broadcast of French TV channel TF1 following the verdict in her appeal trial over misuse of EU funds, in Boulogne-Billancourt, outside Paris, on July 7, 2026. AFP

Here is a look at what's next ahead of the 2027 elections:

What is Le Pen's strategy?

Le Pen's anti-immigration National Rally (RN) party sees its best chance yet to win the country's top job after 10 years under centrist Emmanuel Macron.

Veteran politician Le Pen, 57, has run three times already, twice reaching the second-round runoff.

She has decided to run for a fourth time despite being convicted on appeal of misappropriation of European public funds, choosing to buy time by challenging her conviction before France's highest court.

"It is up to the voters to judge," she said on Wednesday during her first campaign trip in western France.

She launched her campaign hours after she was sentenced on appeal to a 15-month ban from office -- already served -- and a one-year term to be served under electronic monitoring.

Her appeal means she is again presumed innocent and suspends the enforcement of her sentence, allowing her to campaign freely.

Her strategy appears to bank on lengthy judicial timelines, as the Court of Cassation generally takes between eight months and a year to issue a ruling.

But the court on Wednesday said it could deliver its ruling by early April next year at the latest, with the first round of the election set for April 18.

If the Court of Cassation rejects her appeal, the conviction would be final and her sentence enforceable, making it possible that she would have to wear an electronic tag while campaigning.

Asked about this possibility on Monday, she said only: "We'll see."

How could voters respond?

Deeply rooted among working-class voters, the RN has built up a solid electoral base over the decades, marked by distrust of those in power.

Her decision to stay in the race "will help rally her first-round electorate behind her through a strongly anti-establishment message", said Jerome Fourquet of the Ifop polling company on Europe 1 radio on Wednesday.

For Marta Lorimer, a lecturer in politics at Cardiff University, Le Pen's core voters will back her "whether she's convicted or not, whether she's found guilty or not".

"The problem for her is that she also has to speak beyond that electorate, and there you might find that there are voters who care more about the honesty of a politician, particularly when it comes to embezzling funds," she told AFP.

Le Pen is running with her 30-year-old lieutenant, RN party leader Jordan Bardella, on a "ticket" that would see him named prime minister if she wins.

Bardella recently polled better than his mentor when it was thought she might have to back out of the race.

Will conviction hold Le Pen back?

The RN and Le Pen have long advocated tough bans on holding public office for politicians convicted of offences, particularly the misuse of public funds.

Edouard Philippe, the former premier and a declared centre-right presidential candidate who is seen as the most serious challenger to Le Pen, was quick to point out what he saw as a contradiction.

It "confronts her with her conscience", he said, adding that he hoped "she will explain herself to the French people".

The RN will need to broaden its base to win, courting the traditional right.

Le Pen has strived in recent years to normalise the far right.

But certain voters may say, "'she has still been convicted... that's not a good sign, including for the country's image'," said Bernard Sananes of the polling group Elabe.

For now, the inability of politicians to solve everyday problems may weigh more heavily than a criminal record, according to Ifop's Frederic Dabi.

"Marine Le Pen still has the powerful advantage that she has never held office at a national level," he said.

Raphael Glucksmann, a possible left-wing candidate, criticised what he sees as the effect of "the new rules for politics set by Donald Trump".

The US president was elected in November 2024, six months after being found guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records related to a hush money payment to a porn star ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

He was sentenced in January 2025, 10 days before taking office, but was exempted from serving a sentence.