Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corpse (IRGC) announced on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, with no ships allowed to go through it until “the US stops its interferences in the region." That setback followed military escalation last week with American forces bombing targets in Iran after the Iranians attacked vessels using routes in the strait other than those specified by Tehran.
Iran retaliated by attacking targets in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan. All Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members and other Arab countries, including Egypt, condemned the Iranian attacks. But what caught the attention of the media was that, hours after the attacks, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed flew to Kuwait to meet with its leaders. The visit, though it is officially referred to as a gesture of support and solidarity, raised speculations in the media that the UAE may be gathering momentum for Gulf involvement in the war.
It was remarkable that the UAE was spared a retaliatory response by Iran last week; during the three-month war the UAE received the largest share of Iranian missiles and drones. Speculation festered after the south of Iran was bombed on Thursday after the US said it had completed its military operations. The Israeli media quickly picked up on an Associated Press report, “Who launched the latest airstrikes against Iran? Right now it’s a mystery.” Iran for its part didn’t blame anyone for the “mystery attacks”, nor did it target Israel in its retaliation.
By 6:30 am Tehran time on Thursday, the US military’s Central Command said it had concluded a round of strikes that hit 90 targets. Shortly after that, Iranian news outlets and state media reported a series of airstrikes and explosions targeting the country’s Bushehr, the city where the main nuclear station lies, as well as Sistan and Baluchistan provinces, along with the cities of Ahvaz and Chabahar and other areas.
This is not the first time that speculations about the involvement of Gulf countries have been raised. During the war, the media quoted “officials” saying that both Saudi Arabia and the UAE launched airstrikes targeting Iran after Tehran struck energy sites in their territories. Those reports were officially neither confirmed nor denied.
As one Gulf commentator put it, the GCC’s stance on the conflict did not change. He told Al-Ahram Weekly that “if Israel wasn’t part of the war from day one, the Gulf countries would have retaliated once the first Iranian missile or drone hit Gulf soil.” He doubted that any Gulf nations will have taken part in the latest round of bombing Iran, stressing that all Gulf countries are holding onto the position of avoiding escalation.
It seems that Israel’s involvement is one of the main factors restraining Gulf retaliation, as a Western veteran diplomat told the Weekly. He noted that Israel would have liked “some Gulf countries to join in the fight, especially those that are part of the Abraham Accords. But neither Gulf countries nor the Americans were enthusiastic about that prospect.”
That view is widely held by many analysts. Andrew Hammond of Oxford University told the Weekly that he didn’t think the GCC countries would join the war on Iran. “We won’t see any new divisions of position in the Gulf – they will follow their already established stances. That means Bahrain and the UAE will play some role in encouraging the US in its strikes, overtly or otherwise, while the others will maintain the underlying priority of manageable relations with Tehran since it’s not going anywhere while the US is a distant power with a contingent commitment to the region,” he said.
Since the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Tehran and Washington was signed, and the two countries agreed to cease hostilities for 60 days – during which negotiations on a final deal continued – some parties in the Gulf were not content with that outcome. They saw it as the US ignoring their concerns about Iran’s missile programme threatening their security and its support to proxy militias undermining stability in the region. Nevertheless, the official GCC stance was for a “peaceful solution” to the conflict, as long as any final deal addresses their concerns.
One of the main reasons GCC members were furious is the perception that the MoU conceded control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran. The Americans insisted it didn’t, but recent developments show that Iran is adamant about controlling the strait – even denying the approval of an alternate path through it via Omani territorial waters. That Iranian position was the trigger for the latest escalation which led American President Donald Trump to say the ceasefire was over.
Despite the military escalation, indirect negotiations between Tehran and Washington continue, mediated mainly by the two GCC members Qatar and Oman. Moreover, regional powers from Egypt to Pakistan to Turkey are keen on de-escalation and settling the conflict peacefully. Even hard-line positions within the Gulf countries might be reluctant to join in the fighting, widening the scope of war. “Patience is running out” regarding Iranian aggression, as some Gulf officials say, but whether that tilts the prospects of the Gulf joining the war is doubtful.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 16 July, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly.
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