The ministry said the flood outlook should become clearer after the first 10 days of August, when more hydrological and climatic data will be available.
The assessment was made during a meeting of the Permanent Committee for Regulating Nile River Flows, chaired by Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Hani Sewilam, to review Nile inflows and Egypt’s water situation during peak water demand.
The committee examined rainfall over the Nile’s headwaters and water flows from the Blue Nile, White Nile, and Atbara River.
It noted that a substantial portion of the Blue Nile’s annual floodwater arrives during the second half of July and early August. The Blue Nile’s inflow during the final 10 days of July alone represents around 50 percent of its total monthly inflow.
“The accuracy of flood forecasts increases progressively as the rainy season advances and more hydrological and climatic data become available,” the committee said.
It stressed that the Nile is hydrologically variable, with natural daily and seasonal fluctuations. Therefore, Egypt’s water situation must be evaluated through an integrated analysis of multiple hydrological and climatic indicators rather than short-term changes alone.
The committee also reviewed forecasts for the El Niño and La Niña climate patterns and their possible effects on rainfall in East Africa.
It said these forecasts were important to seasonal assessments, but their effect on rainfall across the Nile Basin depended on several regional and climatic factors.
The meeting also discussed developments in the operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which the ministry described as unlawful and in violation of international law.
The ministry said Ethiopia’s continued unilateral operation of the dam had caused fluctuations in water discharge rates amid the absence of agreed-upon operating rules or a regular mechanism for data sharing under a binding legal agreement with downstream Egypt and Sudan.
“This situation requires the operators of downstream dams and water facilities to continually review and update their operating scenarios,” the committee said.
Sewilam directed ministry bodies to continue monitoring rainfall and river inflows daily, update hydrological and climatic forecasts, and adjust operational scenarios as conditions develop.
“Egypt’s water-resource management system relies on real-time monitoring of all hydrological and climatic indicators and the dynamic operation of water infrastructure,” Sewilam said.
He added that the High Dam “will remain a safeguard for Egyptians and the main pillar of Egypt’s water security,” citing its storage and operational capacity to handle varying hydrological conditions while meeting water demand across all sectors.
The assessment comes after Egyptian water expert Nader Nour El-Din described images of the Nile’s retreat across Sudan as “very shocking” and said the current hydrological year could mark the beginning of a series of lean years.
He linked the decline partly to Ethiopia’s continued storage and operation of the GERD and said the High Dam and Egypt’s strategic reserves would protect the country from an immediate shortage.
Speaking on the Al-Masry Effendi programme late on Saturday, Nour El-Din said the decline had disrupted drinking-water stations in and around Khartoum after water receded from their intake pumps.
In Sudan, unusually low river levels forced the El-Salha water station south of Omdurman to suspend operations after its intake pumps were left above the waterline. Operations at the North Bahri station were also disrupted, leaving thousands of residents dependent on water tankers or brackish wells.
Khartoum water officials attributed the decline to delayed rainfall and weak seasonal river flows. Sudanese water infrastructure expert Abubakr Mohamed El-Mustafa said combined Blue and White Nile flows had fallen to approximately 180 million cubic metres per day in July, compared with around 300 million during preceding months.
El-Mustafa attributed the decline to several factors, including lower flows in both tributaries, increased irrigation withdrawals, and the storage and operation of the GERD.
He cautioned that the retreat did not by itself indicate an overall drought and expected inflows to improve as the rainy season progressed. Sudanese Radio Dabanga reported that releases reaching Sudan from the GERD remained at an estimated 150–180 million cubic metres per day.
The GERD’s effect on downstream flows has become increasingly visible since its formal inauguration in September 2025.
While the current concern centres on low levels, Sudan and Egypt faced the opposite extreme last autumn, when uncoordinated releases from the full reservoir reportedly reached 750 million cubic metres per day and compounded seasonal flooding in Sudan.
The sharp swings have reinforced Egyptian and Sudanese demands for a binding agreement governing the GERD’s operation and regular exchange of hydrological data.
Ethiopia considers the dam essential for electricity generation and development, while Egypt, which depends on the Nile for more than 90 percent of its freshwater, says unilateral operation threatens downstream water security.
Egypt's annual per capita water share has dropped from around 2,000 cubic metres in 1960 to less than 500 cubic metres, falling below the international water poverty threshold of 1,000 cubic metres per person, according to previous remrks by Sewilam.
Egypt's total annual water demand has reached 88.55 billion cubic metres, while renewable water resources stand at just 65.35 billion cubic metres. To bridge this deficit, Egypt currently reuses an estimated 23.2 billion cubic metres of water annually.
The figures place Egypt among the most water-stressed countries globally, with demand continuing to rise alongside agricultural and food security needs.
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