Sameh Abdel-Rahman, deputy head of the Nile Water Sector at the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, said only six of the dam’s 13 turbines were operating.
Egypt is closely monitoring developments at the dam, including water discharges and turbine operations, using satellite imagery and other methods, Abdel-Rahman told Sada El-Balad’s Ala Mas'uliyati television programme.
He accused Ethiopia of “mismanagement” in operating the dam, stressing that the dispute could only be resolved through a “legally binding agreement.”
Abdel-Rahman said the High Dam fully meets Egypt's water needs and can secure them for extended periods, even under the most severe water conditions.
“We will not face a water crisis under any circumstances, by the grace of God,” he stated.
He added that Egypt is expanding the Toshka Spillway and increasing the capacity of its depressions to accommodate any excess water beyond Lake Nasser’s storage capacity.
The project is also intended to increase the volume of water that can be discharged daily into the depressions, he said.
Abdel-Rahman described the work as part of a pre-emptive plan to prepare for worst-case scenarios, whether drought or an “artificial flood” such as the one Egypt faced last year.
Regarding the current flood season, he said it was too early for any water authority to make a reliable assessment, noting that several previous seasons had begun weakly before rainfall increased sharply in August and September.
He said the 2015 flood was “very weak,” while the 2016 flood was average. From 2017 through 2025, however, the Nile Basin recorded “high floods.”
Abdel-Rahman also pointed to sharply conflicting forecasts from international meteorological centres. He said two models presented by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) offered contradictory projections, with one forecasting drought over the next three months and the other predicting above-average rainfall during the same period.
Scientists have linked El Niño, the warming of Pacific Ocean temperatures, to weaker floods and reduced rainfall across the Nile Basin, he said.
However, Abdel-Rahman stressed that El Niño, which typically intensifies between September and December, is “not the only factor” determining the strength of the flood.
An accurate assessment, he added, requires examining rainfall indicators alongside all relevant climatic factors.
The remarks come a day after the irrigation ministry stated that Nile inflows exceeded average levels in June before falling below average in July.
The ministry said a clearer assessment should be possible after the first 10 days of August, when more hydrological and climatic data become available. Around half of the Blue Nile's July inflow typically arrives during the last 10 days of the month.
Combined flows from the Blue and White Niles reportedly fell to around 180 million cubic metres per day in July, down from roughly 300 million cubic metres per day in the preceding months.
Experts attributed the decline to delayed rainfall, weaker seasonal flows, irrigation withdrawals, and GERD operations, but cautioned that the drop did not yet indicate an overall drought.
The current low flows follow the opposite problem from last year, when Egypt and Sudan accused Ethiopia of releasing large volumes of water without coordination.
GERD discharges reportedly fell to about 111 million cubic metres per day in late August 2025 before surging to as much as 750 million cubic metres per day in September, compounding seasonal flooding in Sudan and placing pressure on Egypt's water management system.
Egypt depends on the Nile for more than 90 percent of its freshwater, while the Blue Nile supplies about 85 percent of the 55 billion cubic metres of Nile water it receives annually. Cairo says unilateral GERD operations expose the two downstream countries to alternating risks of water shortages and uncontrolled flooding.
Egypt is among the world’s most water-stressed countries, with its annual per capita water share falling from around 2,000 cubic metres in 1960 to less than 500 cubic metres, well below the international water-poverty threshold of 1,000 cubic metres, according to previous remarks by Irrigation Minister Hani Sewilam.
The country’s annual water demand has reached 88.55 billion cubic metres, compared with renewable resources of only 65.35 billion cubic metres, prompting it to reuse an estimated 23.2 billion cubic metres annually to bridge the deficit as agricultural and food security needs continue to grow.
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