With Washington pursuing a policy of strategic exhaustion towards Tehran, there are doubts over whether the current process can yield a durable accommodation between the US and Iran.
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This week’s peace with Washington could turn into a battle for the soul of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
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Lebanon has emerged as the battleground for a larger US-Iran deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, unlock billions in frozen assets, and place limits on Tehran’s nuclear programme.
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The intervention by the Gulf states in the US confrontation with Iran this week reflects less a shift towards trust than a calculated attempt to avoid being once again caught in the crossfire.
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Prospects in the standoff between Washington and Tehran over the Strait of Hormuz are defined by a cruel calculation in which neither side is prepared to back down.
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Differences of opinion are being permitted and even encouraged by the Iranian regime on the understanding that they contribute to controlled dissent.
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Trump claims that negotiations with Iran are advancing, yet the facts on the ground tell another story.
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The use of military force by the US and Israel against Iran aims not only to weaken the regime but also to turn civilians into instruments of regime change.
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Israel’s targeted killings of secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and others this week will not unravel the country’s power structure.
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Any move by Washington to mobilise Iran’s minorities against the government in Tehran would be built on a profound misreading of the country.
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Tehran is going on the offensive in the war with the US and Israel, seeking a regional settlement and long-term security guarantees before it agrees to end the conflict.
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A US war against Iran would not resemble its earlier war against Iraq but would be far more complex, far more costly, and potentially far more destabilising.
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The conflicting messages sent out by US President Donald Trump have only deepened the ambiguity surrounding US intentions towards Iran.
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Netanyahu’s visit to Washington this week is part of a strategy to sabotage the ongoing negotiations with Iran.
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With the US ratcheting up the pressure on Tehran, Iran remains caught between fragile diplomacy and the looming threat of catastrophic force, where chaos could become the instrument of change.
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Fundamental questions regarding Trump’s Gaza Board of Peace remain to be answered.
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This year Iran realised that its old world had vanished, and next year it will learn whether it can survive the new one that has replaced it
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The erosion of the rules-based international order is no longer a theoretical concern, with the US now disentangling itself from principles that it earlier helped design and sustain.
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The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is being systematically violated by Israel, with the result that what seemed viable only weeks ago may now be collapsing in confusion.
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Washington and Tel Aviv envision a region free of opposition to Israeli hegemony, but how will that work out
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